- Expect Sun Belt transfer Gio Lopez to play quarterback in Chapel Hill this year.
- Bill Belichick may be particularly effective in fixing UNC’s bad defense.
- Market sentiment for UNC may be affected by cringey off-the-field drama.
There’s a new era in Chapel Hill. It could be good; it could be bad; it could be very, very weird.
The Tar Heels are arguably the most discussed college football program of the 2025 offseason thanks to the addition of head coach Bill Belichick. The former Patriots boss assumes control of his first NCAA program as the oldest coach in college football.
On top of his age and lack of college experience, Belichick also brings with him an unusually loud personal distraction. (Maybe you’ve heard about it.)
With all that in mind, it’s fair to wonder how good, or how long, the Belichick era will be.
The best way to take a position? As always, that’s the win total market. Today, I’m giving my official recommendation on what to do with North Carolina’s 2025 college football win total.
North Carolina Football Season Preview
Last year, Mack Brown’s 2024 UNC campaign fell apart early. Max Johnson transferred to Chapel Hill to play quarterback after SEC stints at LSU and Texas A&M, but he got hurt in the opener.
That wasn’t ideal, but the offense still found its way with eventual first-round NFL pick Omarian Hampton pacing the ground game. The real problem was the defense, which allowed about 30 points per game despite a decent overall talent level. They ranked 89th in FBS for points allowed and 116th in Phil Steele’s Pass Defense Rankings (PDR).
G5 darling James Madison rang up 70 points on North Carolina’s defense in Week 4, and it was all downhill from there. The Heels were 3-5 the rest of the way, including rivalry losses to NC State and Duke. Six total wins matched the lowest overall mark of the last five seasons, and Brown was fired.
Enter Belichick, whose reputation for defense might suggest that he is well-positioned to turn around the lagging unit. And indeed, Belichick will likely get the best out of the talent that is on the roster. But how much roster talent actually exists at UNC in 2025 is another matter of discussion.
The defensive line, in particular, appears to be a weak area, with seven of the top eight contributors gone from the team. I do think Belichick can work his magic on the back side of UNC’s defense, which will be the biggest source of improvement for the team. But with a light pass rush on deck for 2025, the ceiling will still be low for the defensive backfield.
North Carolina’s biggest offseason acquisition is on the offensive side of the ball, with former South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez arriving in Chapel Hill after the spring. Despite the late arrival, Lopez should win the job, and he’ll likely be one of the top quarterbacks in the ACC by the end of the season.
It’ll be tough to replace Hampton, but with a decent offensive line and a good quarterback, the Tar Heels should still score in the neighborhood of 30 points per game.
North Carolina Football Win Total 2025
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, North Carolina’s win total is 7.5, with -165 juice to the under. Bettors can buy the over at +140.
As of Aug. 6, 58% of tickets and 69% of the overall handle at BetMGM was on North Carolina under 7.5 wins.
For all the win totals and college football odds at BetMGM, make sure you check out my broader college football win totals mega-preview.
North Carolina Football Schedule Analysis
The biggest asset UNC has is its schedule. The Heels draw difficult games against TCU in Week 1 and ACC playoff favorite Clemson in Week 6. Other than that, nothing on the schedule is very scary.
Even if you assume a home loss to TCU, North Carolina can handle its business just fine against Charlotte, Richmond, and a dreadful UCF team that has no direction. That leaves Belichick with a bye to prepare for his home game against Clemson – a dangerous prospect for Tigers fans.
But again, let’s just assume UNC loses this game. The latter half of the schedule includes more presumably easy wins against Cal, Stanford, and Wake Forest. Virginia is a nominal rivalry game that the Heels should win at home. NC State, Syracuse, and Duke are all winnable, even if two are on the road.
Let’s assume North Carolina has wins in pocket for the following games:
- At Charlotte
- Richmond
- UCF
- Stanford
- At Wake Forest
To clear 7.5 wins, North Carolina would need to go 3-2 against the middle of the ACC: Virginia, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, and Cal. The latter three games would be on the road, meaning UNC would need at least one road win.
North Carolina Win Total Prediction 2025
It’s trendy to clown on Belichick and UNC football this season. I think we can all admit that some of the items that have appeared in our news feeds have been cringey.
But from a raw schedule evaluation standpoint, UNC has a very manageable path to an over. Few games are out of reach. A win against TCU in Week 1 would all but make this bet a lock, thanks to how soft the middle of the ACC is these days.
BetMGM is pricing this over at +140, perhaps because of the general sourness that may have crept into the market. That makes the UNC over a strong value bet in the larger college football win totals market.
North Carolina Win Total Prediction: Over 7.5 (+140)
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