- Central Florida is a -7 point favorite vs. North Carolina
- North Carolina vs. UCF Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: FOX
North Carolina (2-1) visit Acrisure Bounce House to take on UCF (2-0) on Sep. 20 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).
The North Carolina vs. UCF Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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North Carolina vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Carolina | +7 -105 | 47.5 -110 | 225 |
| UCF | -7 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -275 |
North Carolina vs UCF Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 66.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Central Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Carolina vs UCF Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Carolina Best Bets Today
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)
UCF Best Bets Today
- UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.1% ROI
- North Carolina is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Central Florida iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- UCF is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 9.09% ROI
- UCF is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- UCF is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. UCF
North Carolina is winless (0-5) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
North Carolina was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .454
UCF: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
UCF was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
UCF was winless (0-5) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422
UCF was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
UCF was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515
Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. UCF
UCF has gained 518 yards on 36 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.
UCF’s WRs has 128 receptions in 14 games (just 9.1 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 18.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
UCF has gained 518 yards on 36 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 13th-best among FBS skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 446 passing yards in 3 games (just 148.7 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. UCF’s defense has allowed just 98.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s WRs has gained 344 yards on 23 receptions (15.0 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 446 passing yards in 3 games (just 148.7 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. UCF’s defense has allowed just 98.5 passing yards per game this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 446 passing yards in 3 games (just 148.7 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. UCF’s defense has allowed just 98.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s WRs has gained 344 yards on 23 receptions (15.0 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 446 passing yards in 3 games (just 148.7 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. UCF’s defense has allowed just 98.5 passing yards per game this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
North Carolina’s offense has thrown for 446 passing yards in 3 games (just 148.7 YPG) this season — 17th-worst among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense has allowed just 98.5 passing yards per game this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 2,403 yards on 427 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense have allowed just 4.1 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
UCF Offensive Stats & Trends
UCF RBs have averaged 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (399 yards / 47 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
UCF RBs have averaged 11.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (252 yards / 23 touches) on 1st down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
UCF RBs averaged 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,580 yards / 208 touches) on 1st down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
UCF RBs have averaged 7.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (3,030 yards / 428 touches) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
UCF Skill Players have caught just 8 of 27 passes (30% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%
North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 20% of pass attempts (3/15) last week– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
North Carolina allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 387 attempts (4%) last season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2%
North Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of 78% (35 completions/45 attempts) in the 1st half this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 62%
UCF Defensive Stats & Trends
UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
UCF has not recorded a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3
UCF has allowed no passing TDs (41 pass attempts) this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 24.6
UCF allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (33 completions/47 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 56%
UCF has not recorded a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15.8
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