New Mexico vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Rate Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 5:51 PM

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(Photo by Gian Lorenzo Ferretti/Shutterstock)

Minnesota is a -2.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Rate Bowl TV Channel: ESPN

New Mexico (9-3) visit Chase Field to take on Minnesota (7-5) on Dec. 26 in Phoenix, AZ. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST.

Minnesota is a betting favorite in the Rate Bowl, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The New Mexico vs. Minnesota Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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New Mexico vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
New Mexico	+2.5 -110	44.5 -110	120
Minnesota	-2.5 -110	44.5 -110	-145

New Mexico vs Minnesota Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 57.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico and Minnesota, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

New Mexico vs Minnesota Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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New Mexico Best Bets Today

New Mexico has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+11.20 Units / 32% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.91 Units / 68% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)
New Mexico has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Minnesota Best Bets Today

Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+7.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 83% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)

New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.32% ROI).

New Mexico is 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.2 Units / 31.82% ROI
New Mexico is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
New Mexico is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota iss 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.8 Units / -36.5% ROI).

Minnesota is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 7.29% ROI
Minnesota is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Minnesota is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on 71 of 318 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.

Minnesota allowed first downs on 78% of pass attempts on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 49%

Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Minnesota has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (33/283) this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico

New Mexico TEs have been targeted 19 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 12.4 yards after the catch this season — 4th-best among FBS RBs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed 11.4 RAC this season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

New Mexico’s TEs has 76 receptions in 12 games (6.3 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among FBS TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

New Mexico TEs have 13 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

New Mexico’s RBs has averaged 12.4 yards after the catch this season — 4th-best among FBS RBs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 5.1 RAC to RBs this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for New Mexico vs. Minnesota