- Western Kentucky is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
- Nevada vs. Western Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Nevada (1-2) visit Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium to take on Western Kentucky (2-1) on Sep. 20 in Bowling Green, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Western Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (100).
The Nevada vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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Nevada vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Nevada | +10.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | 300 |
| Western Kentucky | -10.5 100 | 53.5 -110 | -375 |
Nevada vs Western Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Kentucky will win this game with 73.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and Western Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Nevada vs Western Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nevada will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Nevada Best Bets Today
- Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Nevada have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Nevada have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 11% ROI)
Western Kentucky Best Bets Today
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+1.40 Units / 2% ROI)
Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Nevada is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Nevada is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -36.97% ROI
- Nevada is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Nevada is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky iss 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.52% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Nevada was winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Nevada is winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .365
Nevada was winless (0-8) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Nevada is winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .428
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada
Western Kentucky was 7-2 (.778) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Western Kentucky was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526
Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570
Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 1,035 passing yards in 3 games (345.0 YPG) this season — 10th-best among FBS teams. Nevada’s defense has allowed 255.7 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 1,074 passing yards in 3 games (358.0 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense has allowed 255.7 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s RBs has rushed for 1,507 yards on 348 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-10th-worst among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense have allowed 4.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Nevada’s QBs has thrown for 459 passing yards in 3 games (just 153.0 YPG) this season — 20th-worst among FBS teams. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 171.7 passing yards per game this season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.
Nevada’s offense has thrown for 3,223 passing yards in 16 games (just 201.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 175.3 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Nevada’s offense has thrown for 3,223 passing yards in 16 games (just 201.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 175.3 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends
Nevada’s QBs has thrown for 459 passing yards in 3 games (just 153.0 YPG) this season — 20th-worst among FBS teams. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 171.7 passing yards per game this season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.
Nevada’s offense has thrown for 3,223 passing yards in 16 games (just 201.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 175.3 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Nevada’s offense has thrown for 3,223 passing yards in 16 games (just 201.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 175.3 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Nevada RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 61 carries (inf Carries Per TD) this season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 19.8
Nevada RBs averaged just 2.3 Yards per Carry (120 yards/53 carries) in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 1,035 passing yards in 3 games (345.0 YPG) this season — 10th-best among FBS teams. Nevada’s defense has allowed 255.7 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 1,074 passing yards in 3 games (358.0 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense has allowed 255.7 passing yards per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s RBs has rushed for 1,507 yards on 348 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-10th-worst among FBS RBs. Nevada’s defense have allowed 4.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky have thrown for 7 TDs in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among FBS Offenses
Western Kentucky WRs have 10 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Nevada Defensive Stats & Trends
Nevada has not forced a fumble (108 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 51.5
Nevada has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (45 completions/64 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Nevada has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (45 completions/64 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Nevada allowed 29 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS
Nevada tackled opponents for a loss on just 58 of 496 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Western Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky allowed 3,097 rushing yards last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Western Kentucky has not forced a fumble (110 carries) this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 53.4
Western Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on just 70 of 619 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) last season– 11th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Western Kentucky has not forced a fumble (110 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 51.5
Western Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 22.9 passes per game last season– 2nd-lowest in FBS; Average: 30.5
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