Nevada vs Utah St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:53 AM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Utah St is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
Nevada vs. Utah State Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

Nevada (1-7) visit Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium to take on Utah State (4-4) on Nov. 8 in Logan, UT. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Utah St is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Nevada vs. Utah State Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Nevada vs. Utah State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Nevada	+9.5 -110	52.5 -105	270
Utah State	-9.5 -110	52.5 -115	-350

Nevada vs Utah State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Utah State will win this game with 75.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and Utah St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nevada vs Utah State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nevada will cover the spread with 58.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Nevada Best Bets Today

Nevada has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Nevada have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Nevada has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Utah State Best Bets Today

Utah State has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.75 Units / 76% ROI)
Utah State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.30 Units / 72% ROI)
Utah State have covered the Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Utah State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Utah State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI).

Nevada is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -65.75% ROI
Nevada is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Nevada is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah St iss 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Utah State is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -6.86% ROI
Utah State is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Utah State is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Utah State

Nevada have thrown 15 interceptions this season– most among FBS Offenses

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 1,260 passing yards in 8 games (just 157.5 YPG) this season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Utah State’s defense has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada have thrown 5 TDs on 209 pass attempts (one TD every 41.8 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 18.9

Nevada have averaged just 7.7 yards per completion (240 yards/31 completions) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Nevada’s QBs has thrown for 1,260 passing yards in 8 games (just 157.5 YPG) this season — 15th-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Nevada opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Nevada has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (215 yards / 79 touches) in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Nevada opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Nevada allowed 29 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Nevada allowed 29 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. Utah State