Nevada vs Fresno St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 02, 2025, 3:04 PM

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Fresno State helmet in the first half of an NCAA college football game for the Mountain West championship against Boise State, Saturday, Dec. 1, 2018, in Boise, Idaho. Fresno State won 19-16. (AP Photo/Steve Conner)

(AP Photo/Steve Conner)

Fresno St is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
Nevada vs. Fresno State Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

Nevada (1-3) visit Valley Children's Stadium to take on Fresno State (4-1) on Oct. 4 in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.

Fresno St is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).

The Nevada vs. Fresno State Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Nevada vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Nevada	+13.5 -105	44.5 -105	400
Fresno State	-13.5 -115	44.5 -115	-550

Nevada vs Fresno State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 77.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and Fresno St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nevada vs Fresno State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 61.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Nevada Best Bets Today

Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Nevada have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Nevada has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Nevada have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.50 Units / 8% ROI)

Fresno State Best Bets Today

Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 59% ROI)
Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Fresno State has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Fresno State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Fresno State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Nevada is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -46.04% ROI
Nevada is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Nevada is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Fresno St iss 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 16.67% ROI).

Fresno State is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 43.96% ROI
Fresno State is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Fresno State is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

Fresno State has allowed 8 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS

Fresno State has allowed 8 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Fresno State has allowed 7 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Fresno State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 147 carries (73.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.6

Fresno State has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 21 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Fresno State RBs have been targeted 7 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State RBs have picked up first downs on 15 receptions this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State RBs have 6 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State RBs have 21 receptions in the 1st half this season– most among FBS Teams

Fresno State RBs have 95 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– 4th-most among FBS Teams

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. Fresno State