NC State vs Miami Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 14, 2025, 11:36 AM

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Miami head coach Mario Cristobal watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Florida State, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla.

(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Miami Florida is a -14.5 point favorite vs. NC State
North Carolina State vs. Miami Florida Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

North Carolina State (5-4) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on Miami Florida (7-2) on Nov. 15 in Miami, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Miami Florida is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-115).

The North Carolina State vs. Miami Florida Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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North Carolina State vs. Miami Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
North Carolina State	+14.5 -105	55.5 -110	475
Miami Florida	-14.5 -115	55.5 -110	-650

North Carolina State vs Miami Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Miami (FL) will win this game with 78.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both NC State and Miami Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Carolina State vs Miami Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina State will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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North Carolina State Best Bets Today

NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
NC State has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.87 Units / 43% ROI)
NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 22% ROI)
NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)
NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+0.15 Units / 0% ROI)

Miami Florida Best Bets Today

Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Miami (FL) has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
Miami (FL) has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)
Miami has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Miami (FL) have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)

North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.45 Units / -14.72% ROI).

North Carolina State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -10.95% ROI
North Carolina State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
North Carolina State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Miami Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami Florida iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Miami Florida is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Miami Florida is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Miami Florida is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Miami Florida

Miami (FL) QBs had 76 completions for 20 or more yards last season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Miami (FL) TEs averaged 19.5 yards per reception (642 yards/33 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Miami (FL) RBs averaged 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (832 yards / 107 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Miami (FL) TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Miami (FL) Skill Players had 20 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Miami Florida: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State

Miami (FL) is 18-2 (.900) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .581

Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Miami (FL) was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Miami (FL) is 17-1 (.944) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .634

Matchup Notes for North Carolina State vs. Miami Florida