- Duke is a -3.5 point favorite vs. NC State
- North Carolina State vs. Duke Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
North Carolina State (3-0) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on Duke (1-2) on Sep. 20 in Durham, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
Duke is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The North Carolina State vs. Duke Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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North Carolina State vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Carolina State | +3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | 145 |
| Duke | -3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -175 |
North Carolina State vs Duke Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 60.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both NC State and Duke, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Carolina State vs Duke Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Carolina State Best Bets Today
- NC State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- NC State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- NC State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)
Duke Best Bets Today
- Duke has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.44 Units / 18% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 3% ROI)
- Duke have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
NC State is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- North Carolina State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 31.91% ROI
- North Carolina State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- North Carolina State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke iss 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Duke is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- Duke is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Duke is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492
North Carolina State was 2-6 (.250) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .442
North Carolina State was 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .454
North Carolina State is 7-3 (.700) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .519
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State
Duke was 6-1 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618
Duke was 6-2 (.750) when in a one score game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Duke was 8-4 (.667) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Duke is 3-5 (.375) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Matchup Notes for North Carolina State vs. Duke
Duke’s QBs has thrown for 1,058 passing yards in 3 games (352.7 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 297.3 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Duke’s WRs has 276 receptions in 16 games (17.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 21.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Duke’s QBs has thrown for 1,058 passing yards in 3 games (352.7 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 297.3 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among P5 defenses.
North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 783 yards on 59 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2024 season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 570 yards on 38 receptions (15.0 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 570 yards on 38 receptions (15.0 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed 15.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State TEs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State RBs averaged 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (816 yards / 94 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
North Carolina State TEs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina State RBs had 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State RBs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– T-most among FBS Teams
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke have thrown for 4 TDs in the 3rd quarter this season– T-most among FBS Offenses
Duke’s QBs has thrown for 1,058 passing yards in 3 games (352.7 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 297.3 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Duke’s WRs has 276 receptions in 16 games (17.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 21.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Duke’s QBs has thrown for 1,058 passing yards in 3 games (352.7 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS teams. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 297.3 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among P5 defenses.
Duke’s offense has thrown for 1,058 passing yards in 3 games (352.7 YPG) this season — 10th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 297.3 passing yards per game this season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State has averaged a sack every 61.5 pass attempts (123 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.7
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
North Carolina State has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (2/123) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
North Carolina State has averaged a sack every 61.5 pass attempts (123 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.1
Duke Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke has no interceptions and 3 TD passes allowed this season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.2
Duke has no interceptions and 3 TD passes allowed this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.6
Duke has no interceptions (74 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.7
Duke has allowed 9 rushing TDs this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Duke has allowed first downs on 54% of pass attempts on 1st down this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 26%
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