Navy vs Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 11

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman looks at the scoreboard during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Stanford in South Bend, Ind., Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022.
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
  • Notre Dame is a -26.5 point favorite vs. Navy
  • Navy vs. Notre Dame Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
  • TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

Navy (7-1) visit Notre Dame Stadium to take on Notre Dame (6-2) on Nov. 8 in South Bend, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Notre Dame is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -26.5 (-110).

The Navy vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Navy vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Navy+26.5 -11056.5 -1151400
Notre Dame -26.5 -11056.5 -105-5000

Navy vs Notre Dame Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 75.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and Notre Dame, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Navy vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Navy will cover the spread with 55.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Navy has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Navy have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI).

  • Navy is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 12.89% ROI
  • Navy is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • Navy is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame iss 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.25% ROI).

  • Notre Dame is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 2.09% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Navy WRs have averaged just 1.2 receptions per game (10/8) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

Navy WRs have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (216 yards/10 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Navy have averaged 16.6 yards per completion (1,192 yards/72 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Navy’s TEs has gained 151 yards on 5 receptions (30.2 YPR) this season — best among FBS TEs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy RBs have averaged 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,120 yards / 259 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

Notre Dame has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 38 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 9%

Notre Dame has 32 interceptions since the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS

Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (14 completions/40 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 63 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Notre Dame has averaged 1.86 interceptions per game (13/7) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 0.78

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 38 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 9%

Notre Dame has 32 interceptions since the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS

Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (14 completions/40 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 63 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Notre Dame has averaged 1.86 interceptions per game (13/7) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 0.78

Navy WRs have averaged just 1.2 receptions per game (10/8) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

Navy WRs have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (216 yards/10 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Navy have averaged 16.6 yards per completion (1,192 yards/72 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Navy’s TEs has gained 151 yards on 5 receptions (30.2 YPR) this season — best among FBS TEs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy RBs have averaged 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,120 yards / 259 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy WRs have averaged just 1.2 receptions per game (10/8) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

Navy WRs have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (216 yards/10 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Navy have averaged 16.6 yards per completion (1,192 yards/72 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Navy’s TEs has gained 151 yards on 5 receptions (30.2 YPR) this season — best among FBS TEs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy RBs have averaged 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,120 yards / 259 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 38 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 9%

Notre Dame has 32 interceptions since the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS

Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (14 completions/40 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 63 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Notre Dame has averaged 1.86 interceptions per game (13/7) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 0.78

Navy Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy WRs have averaged just 1.2 receptions per game (10/8) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

Navy WRs have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (216 yards/10 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Navy have averaged 16.6 yards per completion (1,192 yards/72 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Navy’s TEs has gained 151 yards on 5 receptions (30.2 YPR) this season — best among FBS TEs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy RBs have averaged 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,120 yards / 259 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 38 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 9%

Notre Dame has 32 interceptions since the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS

Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (14 completions/40 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 63 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Notre Dame has averaged 1.86 interceptions per game (13/7) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 0.78


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