- Mississippi St is a -21.5 point favorite vs. N Illinois
- Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
Northern Illinois (1-1) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (3-0) on Sep. 20 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.
Mississippi St is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-105).
The Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Northern Illinois | +21.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | 1000 |
| Mississippi State | -21.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | -2000 |
Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 86.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both N Illinois and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northern Illinois will cover the spread with 73.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Northern Illinois Best Bets Today
- Northern Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Northern Illinois have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Northern Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- Northern Illinois have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.40 Units / 5% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets Today
- Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Northern Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
N Illinois is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Northern Illinois is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Northern Illinois is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Northern Illinois is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St iss 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 6.8% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Northern Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Northern Illinois was 5-2 (.714) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388
Northern Illinois is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586
Northern Illinois was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Northern Illinois was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Northern Illinois
Mississippi State was 1-6 (.143) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581
Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498
Mississippi State is winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515
Mississippi State was 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500
Matchup Notes for Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 655 yards on 44 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 655 yards on 44 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 32nd-best among FBS WRs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs have just 34.4 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 176.7 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.
Northern Illinois has gained 200 yards on 28 receptions (just 7.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.
Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 137 yards on 15 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.
Northern Illinois has gained 200 yards on 28 receptions (just 7.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among P5 defenses.
Northern Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Northern Illinois have thrown 0 TDs on 126 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.2
Northern Illinois Skill Players have no touchdowns on 28 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Northern Illinois have no touchdowns on 28 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.4
Northern Illinois has gained 200 yards on 28 receptions (just 7.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.
Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 137 yards on 15 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State TEs had just one touchdown on 43 receptions last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.2
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 655 yards on 44 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 655 yards on 44 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 32nd-best among FBS WRs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State TEs have just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.8
Mississippi State have gained 40+ yards on 7 of their 59 receptions (12%) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
Northern Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends
Northern Illinois has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 54 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 26.2
Northern Illinois allowed 1.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (39 yards / 25 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.0
Northern Illinois has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 54 rushes this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7
Northern Illinois allowed 7 rushing TDs on 53 carries (7.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.4
Northern Illinois has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 61 carries (8.7 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State tackled opponents for a loss on just 52 of 523 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Mississippi State sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/341) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Mississippi State has averaged 0.9 sacks per game since the 2024 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2.4
Mississippi State allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (240 completions/341 attempts) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 60%
Mississippi State averaged a sack every 34.1 pass attempts (341 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12.3
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