- Minnesota is a -2.5 point favorite vs. California
- Minnesota vs. California Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
Minnesota (2-0) visit California Memorial Stadium to take on California (2-0) on Sep. 13 in Berkeley, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.
Minnesota is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Minnesota vs. California Over/Under is 42.5 total points.
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Minnesota vs. California Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Minnesota | -2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -140 |
| California | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | 115 |
Minnesota vs California Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Minnesota and California, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Minnesota vs California Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts California will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Minnesota Best Bets Today
- Minnesota have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- Minnesota has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
California Best Bets Today
- California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- California has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- California has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Minnesota is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Minnesota is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 12.5% ROI
- Minnesota is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Minnesota is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
California Against the Spread (ATS) Record
California iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- California is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 71.43% ROI
- California is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- California is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. California
Minnesota is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504
Minnesota is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .453
Minnesota is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .643
Minnesota is 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– 16th-best in FBS; Average: .592
California: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota
California was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500
California is 4-6 (.400) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .529
California was 2-5 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
California was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
Matchup Notes for Minnesota vs. California
California has 349 receptions in 15 games (23.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 16.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
California has averaged just 11.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
California’s TEs has 14 receptions in 2 games (7.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-best among ACC TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.5 receptions per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.
Minnesota’s WRs has gained 305 yards on 13 receptions (23.5 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among FBS WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s WRs has gained 305 yards on 13 receptions (23.5 YPR) this season — best among Power 5 WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s WRs has gained 305 yards on 13 receptions (23.5 YPR) this season — best among Power 5 WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends
Minnesota WRs have averaged 21.7 yards per reception (195 yards/9 catches) this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.2
Minnesota TEs have been targeted 6 times on 1st down this season– most among Big Ten Teams
Minnesota’s WRs has gained 305 yards on 13 receptions (23.5 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among FBS WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s WRs has gained 305 yards on 13 receptions (23.5 YPR) this season — best among Power 5 WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota’s WRs has gained 305 yards on 13 receptions (23.5 YPR) this season — best among Power 5 WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
California Offensive Stats & Trends
California has 349 receptions in 15 games (23.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 16.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
California has averaged just 11.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
California’s TEs has 14 receptions in 2 games (7.0 per game) this season — T-2nd-best among ACC TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.5 receptions per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among ACC WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
California has gained 520 yards on 48 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 6.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.
Minnesota Defensive Stats & Trends
Minnesota allowed first downs on 78% of pass attempts on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 49%
Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Minnesota tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 70 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Minnesota tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 70 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2
California Defensive Stats & Trends
California did not record a sack (48 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
California tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 59 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
California allowed 21 TD passes in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most in FBS
California tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 59 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
California allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations last season– most among Power Conference Teams
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