- USC is a -18.5 point favorite vs. Michigan St
- Michigan State vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: FOX
Michigan State (3-0) visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on USC (3-0) on Sep. 20 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00pm EDT.
USC is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-105).
The Michigan State vs. USC Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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Michigan State vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Michigan State | +18.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | 600 |
| USC | -18.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | -900 |
Michigan State vs USC Prediction:
The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 80.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan St and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan State vs USC Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Michigan State Best Bets Today
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michigan State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.22 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
USC Best Bets Today
- USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- USC has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- USC has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- USC have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
- USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan St is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -100% ROI).
- Michigan State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 7.97% ROI
- Michigan State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Michigan State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record
USC iss 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- USC is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.17% ROI
- USC is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- USC is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. USC
Michigan State was 2-4 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Michigan State was 2-7 (.222) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Michigan State was 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451
Michigan State was 4-7 (.364) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .536
USC: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
USC is undefeated (7-0) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .689
USC is 6-3 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .530
USC was 2-5 (.250) when not forcing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513
Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. USC
USC’s offense has thrown for 1,092 passing yards in 3 games (364.0 YPG) this season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 273.3 passing yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.
USC’s QBs has thrown for 1,092 passing yards in 3 games (364.0 YPG) this season — 6th-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 273.3 passing yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.
USC’s QBs has thrown for 1,092 passing yards in 3 games (364.0 YPG) this season — 6th-best among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 273.3 passing yards per game this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s TEs has 14 receptions in 3 games (4.7 per game) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 22.7 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State’s TEs has 14 receptions in 3 games (4.7 per game) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 22.7 receptions per game this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s TEs have 56.7 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 233.0 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State have been sacked on 33% of pass attempts (6/18) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%
Michigan State TEs had just one touchdown on 50 receptions last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Michigan State’s TEs has 14 receptions in 3 games (4.7 per game) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 22.7 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State WRs have no touchdowns on 25 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.3
Michigan State’s TEs has 14 receptions in 3 games (4.7 per game) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 22.7 receptions per game this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
USC Offensive Stats & Trends
USC have averaged 24.2 yards per completion (218 yards/9 completions) on 3rd down this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.7
USC have completed passes for 40+ yards on 8 of their 85 total passing attempts (9%) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
USC TEs have gained no yards on 1 receptions (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0
USC have gained 40+ yards on 8 of their 61 receptions (13%) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has allowed 5 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan State has no interceptions and 6 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: 6.6
Michigan State has allowed 6 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big Ten
Michigan State has allowed 6 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Michigan State has allowed 5 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big Ten
USC Defensive Stats & Trends
USC has averaged 4.7 sacks per game this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 2.4
USC has 6 interceptions this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
USC has averaged 4.7 sacks per game this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.3
USC allowed 4.4 touchdowns per interception (31 TDs allowed, and 7 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.6
USC did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 12 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 14%
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