Michigan vs Oklahoma Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 2

Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables watches from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati, Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)
(AP Photo/Aaron Doster)
  • Oklahoma is a -5.5 point favorite vs. Michigan
  • Michigan vs. Oklahoma Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

Michigan (1-0) visit Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium to take on Oklahoma (1-0) on Sep. 6 in Norman, OK. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Oklahoma is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Michigan vs. Oklahoma Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Michigan vs. Oklahoma Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Michigan+5.5 -11046.5 -115+170
Oklahoma -5.5 -11046.5 -105-210

Michigan vs Oklahoma Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oklahoma will win this game with 63.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan and Oklahoma, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Michigan vs Oklahoma Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oklahoma will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Michigan has hit the Moneyline in their last 3 games (+14.90 Units / 237% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 3 games (+6.20 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+9.50 Units / 168% ROI)
  • Oklahoma has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Oklahoma have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Oklahoma has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+3.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Oklahoma have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Michigan is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Michigan is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Michigan is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma iss 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Oklahoma is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Oklahoma is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Oklahoma is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Michigan was undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .420

Michigan was 4-1 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2024 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .606

Michigan was 1-4 (.200) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .482

Michigan was undefeated (7-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .438

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Oklahoma was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .692

Oklahoma was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards in the 2024 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .380

Oklahoma was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .670

Oklahoma was 7-2 (.778) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .464

Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma has gained 392 yards on 30 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 6.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 18.9% of 37 attempts this season — 10th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.2% of attempts this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Oklahoma has gained 392 yards on 30 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 6.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s TEs has been targeted 10 times this season — T-2nd-most among Big Ten TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 34 receiving yards this season — 2nd-fewest among P5 defenses.

Michigan’s TEs has been targeted 10 times this season — T-2nd-most among Big Ten TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 34 receiving yards this season — 2nd-fewest among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s TEs has been targeted 10 times this season — T-2nd-most among Big Ten TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 34 receiving yards this season — fewest among SEC defenses.

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.6 yards per reception (951 yards/110 catches) with 7-10 yards to go in the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.8

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 9.0 yards per reception (1,603 yards/179 catches) in the 2024 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.4 yards per reception (694 yards/74 catches) in the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.0

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 9.0 yards per reception (1,603 yards/179 catches) in the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

Michigan WRs have averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (460 yards/55 catches) in the 1st half since the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma Skill Players averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (2,242 yards/232 catches) in the 2024 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.8

Oklahoma Skill Players have averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (2,634 yards/262 catches) since the 2024 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.8

Oklahoma were sacked on 20% of pass attempts (24/119) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

Oklahoma Skill Players fumbled 6 times in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Oklahoma has gained 392 yards on 30 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 6.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan has averaged 3.00 interceptions per game (3/1) this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 0.71

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

Michigan has averaged 3.00 interceptions per game (3/1) this season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 0.74

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Michigan allowed 9 rushing TDs on 66 carries (7.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Oklahoma Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has allowed just 3.4 yards per completion (34 yards/10 completions) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10.6

Oklahoma has allowed just 3.4 yards per completion (34 yards/10 completions) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.9

Oklahoma has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 2 of their 26 carries (8%) this season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Oklahoma had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 26.1

Oklahoma has allowed 34.0 Passing Yards per game (34/1) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 170.5


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