Michigan vs Nebraska Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

BetMGM Betting Sep 20, 2025, 10:36 AM

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Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule reacts during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Minnesota, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Michigan is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Nebraska
Michigan vs. Nebraska Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: CBS | PAR+

Michigan (2-1) visit Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) to take on Nebraska (3-0) on Sep. 20 in Lincoln, NE. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Michigan vs. Nebraska Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Michigan vs. Nebraska Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Michigan	-2.5 -110	46.5 -110	-135
Nebraska	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	110

Michigan vs Nebraska Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Nebraska will win this game with 57.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan and Nebraska, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Michigan vs Nebraska Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nebraska will cover the spread with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Michigan Best Bets Today

Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)

Nebraska Best Bets Today

Nebraska have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Michigan is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Michigan is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Michigan is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Nebraska Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nebraska iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Nebraska is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 43.48% ROI
Nebraska is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Nebraska is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Nebraska

Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .479

Michigan is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .540

Michigan was 1-4 (.200) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Michigan is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Nebraska: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Nebraska was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Nebraska was 1-3 (.250) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Nebraska is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .647

Nebraska is 3-5 (.375) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. Nebraska

Nebraska has 374 receptions in 16 games (23.4 per game) since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska has 374 receptions in 16 games (23.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 80 attempts this season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. Nebraska’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 0.0% of attempts this season — best among P5 defenses.

Michigan’s WRs has gained 446 yards on 27 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 6.0 Yards Per Reception this season — best among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s TEs has gained 160 yards on 12 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 6.0 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Michigan Skill Players have just one touchdown on 5 receptions in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 1.9

Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (1,678 yards/190 catches) last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Michigan WRs averaged just 7.3 yards per reception (169 yards/23 catches) on 1st down last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.5

Nebraska Offensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska Skill Players have averaged 29.3 receptions per game (88/3) this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 19.6

Nebraska’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.5% of 111 attempts this season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.9% of attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan has allowed 11 rushing TDs on 85 carries (7.7 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Michigan allowed 9 rushing TDs on 66 carries (7.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 66 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best in the Big Ten; Average: 14%.

Nebraska Defensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska has allowed no passing TDs (66 pass attempts) this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 24.6

Nebraska has not allowed a pass completion for 20+ yards (66 attempts) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Nebraska has allowed just 6.0 yards per completion (198 yards/33 completions) this season– best in FBS; Average: 11.1

Nebraska has not allowed any touchdowns on 33 completions this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 15.0

Nebraska has allowed no passing TDs (66 pass attempts) this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.2

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