Miami Florida vs Florida St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

• Miami Florida is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Florida St
• Miami Florida vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
• TV Channel: ABC

Miami Florida (4-0) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on Florida State (3-1) on Oct. 4 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Miami Florida is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Miami Florida vs. Florida State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Miami Florida vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Miami Florida vs Florida State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Miami (FL) will win this game with 81.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Miami Florida and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Miami Florida vs Florida State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 74.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Miami Florida Best Bets Today

• Miami has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Miami have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami (FL) has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Florida State Best Bets Today

• Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• Florida State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• Florida State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.00 Units / 2% ROI)
• Florida State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.59 Units / 26% ROI)

Miami Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami Florida is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

• Miami Florida is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
• Miami Florida is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
• Miami Florida is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida St iss 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

• Florida State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 47.95% ROI
• Florida State is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Florida State is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI

Miami Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Florida State is winless (0-4) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Florida State was 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Miami Florida

Miami (FL) allowed opponents to catch just 20 of 53 passes (38% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 30 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Miami (FL) allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%

Matchup Notes for Miami Florida vs. Florida State

Miami (FL) allowed opponents to catch just 20 of 53 passes (38% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 30 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Miami (FL) allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%

Florida State is winless (0-4) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Florida State was 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Miami Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida State is winless (0-4) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Florida State was 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) allowed opponents to catch just 20 of 53 passes (38% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 30 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Miami (FL) allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%

Miami Florida Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida State is winless (0-4) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Florida State was 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends

Miami (FL) allowed opponents to catch just 20 of 53 passes (38% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Miami (FL) has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 30 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Miami (FL) allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%

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