Memphis vs Florida Atlantic Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 26, 2025, 10:12 AM

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Memphis is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Florida Atlantic
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic Total (Over/Under): 63.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

Memphis (4-0) visit Flagler Credit Union Stadium to take on Florida Atlantic (1-2) on Sep. 27 in Boca Raton, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

Memphis is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-118).

The Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic Over/Under is 63.5 total points.

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Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Memphis	-13.5 -118	63.5 -105	-550
Florida Atlantic	+13.5 -102	63.5 -115	400

Memphis vs Florida Atlantic Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Memphis and Florida Atlantic, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Memphis vs Florida Atlantic Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida Atlantic will cover the spread with 63.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Memphis Best Bets Today

Memphis has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+13.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Memphis has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+10.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Memphis have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI)
Memphis has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Memphis have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Florida Atlantic Best Bets Today

Florida Atlantic has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Florida Atlantic has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Florida Atlantic has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Florida Atlantic have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Florida Atlantic has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.42 Units / 12% ROI)

Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Memphis is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Memphis is 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 10.64% ROI
Memphis is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI
Memphis is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI

Florida Atlantic Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida Atlantic iss 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Florida Atlantic is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -5.88% ROI
Florida Atlantic is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Florida Atlantic is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Memphis: Keys to the Game vs. Florida Atlantic

Memphis RBs caught 6 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Memphis QBs had 20 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis WRs have averaged a touchdown every 6.3 receptions (19 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Memphis RBs picked up first downs on 14 receptions on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Florida Atlantic: Keys to the Game vs. Memphis

Florida Atlantic Skill Players have averaged 32.7 receptions per game (98/3) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.3

Florida Atlantic have been targeted 50.7 times per game (152/3) this season– highest among FBS Offenses; Average: 30.2

Florida Atlantic’s RBs has rushed for 2,164 yards on 387 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Memphis’s defense have allowed just 3.9 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic WRs have averaged 23.3 receptions per game (70/3) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

Florida Atlantic Skill Players have been targeted 46.7 times per game (140/3) this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.7

Matchup Notes for Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic