Massachusetts vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 26, 2025, 10:13 AM

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Balls lie on the field before an NCAA college football game between Mississippi and Vanderbilt on Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013, in Nashville, Tenn.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Missouri is a -44.5 point favorite vs. Massachusetts
Massachusetts vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

Massachusetts (0-3) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on Missouri (4-0) on Sep. 27 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Missouri is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -44.5 (-110).

The Massachusetts vs. Missouri Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Massachusetts vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Massachusetts	+44.5 -110	56.5 -110
Missouri	-44.5 -110	56.5 -110

Massachusetts vs Missouri Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 89.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Massachusetts and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Massachusetts vs Missouri Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Massachusetts will cover the spread with 54.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Massachusetts Best Bets Today

Massachusetts has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Massachusetts has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Massachusetts has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Massachusetts have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Massachusetts has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Missouri Best Bets Today

Missouri has hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Missouri have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
Missouri has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Missouri have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.74 Units / 27% ROI)
Missouri has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.10 Units / 3% ROI)

Massachusetts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Massachusetts is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.35 Units / -100% ROI).

Massachusetts is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -100% ROI
Massachusetts is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Massachusetts is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri iss 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI).

Missouri is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 6.6% ROI
Missouri is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
Missouri is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI

Massachusetts: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

UMass have thrown 3 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6

UMass WRs have no touchdowns on 45 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

UMass have thrown 0 TDs on 94 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 18.0

UMass’s QBs has thrown for 549 passing yards in 3 games (just 183.0 YPG) this season — T-30th-worst among FBS teams. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 150.5 passing yards per game this season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Massachusetts

Missouri State Skill Players were targeted 31 times last season– fewest among FBS Teams

Missouri State Skill Players averaged just -2.0 yards per reception (-4 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Missouri State Skill Players averaged 26.7 yards per reception (160 yards/6 catches) on 1st down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

Missouri State RBs have averaged 11.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (208 yards / 18 touches) on 3rd down since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.8

Missouri State RBs averaged -1.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (-3 yards / 3 touches) on 3rd down last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Matchup Notes for Massachusetts vs. Missouri