LSU vs Houston Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Texas Bowl

• Houston is a -3 point favorite vs. LSU
• LSU vs. Houston Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
• Texas Bowl TV Channel: ESPN

LSU (7-5) visit NRG Stadium to take on Houston (9-3) on Dec. 27 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:15pm EST.

Houston is a betting favorite in the Texas Bowl, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The LSU vs. Houston Over/Under is 41.5 total points.

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LSU vs. Houston Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

LSU vs Houston Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Houston will win this game with 57.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both LSU and Houston, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

LSU vs Houston Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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LSU Best Bets Today

• LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 64% ROI)
• LSU has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.67 Units / 28% ROI)
• LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• LSU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.15 Units / 3% ROI)

Houston Best Bets Today

• Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Houston has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 57% ROI)
• Houston have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Houston has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.15 Units / 6% ROI)
• Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.65 Units / -30.29% ROI).

• LSU is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 1.78% ROI
• LSU is 2-9 when betting the Over for -7.9 Units / -65.29% ROI
• LSU is 9-2 when betting the Under for +6.8 Units / 56.2% ROI

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston iss 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 27.17% ROI).

• Houston is 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 5.98% ROI
• Houston is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
• Houston is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

LSU Skill Players were targeted 40.2 times per game (522/13) last season– highest among SEC Teams; Average: 29.4

LSU’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed 10.1 RAC to RBs this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU TEs were targeted 25 times with 4-6 yards to go last season– most among SEC Teams

LSU WRs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU Skill Players averaged 26.1 receptions per game (339/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 18.9

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Houston was 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Matchup Notes for LSU vs. Houston

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Houston was 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

LSU Skill Players were targeted 40.2 times per game (522/13) last season– highest among SEC Teams; Average: 29.4

LSU’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed 10.1 RAC to RBs this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU TEs were targeted 25 times with 4-6 yards to go last season– most among SEC Teams

LSU WRs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU Skill Players averaged 26.1 receptions per game (339/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 18.9

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU Skill Players were targeted 40.2 times per game (522/13) last season– highest among SEC Teams; Average: 29.4

LSU’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed 10.1 RAC to RBs this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU TEs were targeted 25 times with 4-6 yards to go last season– most among SEC Teams

LSU WRs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU Skill Players averaged 26.1 receptions per game (339/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 18.9

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Houston was 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

LSU Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU Skill Players were targeted 40.2 times per game (522/13) last season– highest among SEC Teams; Average: 29.4

LSU’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed 10.1 RAC to RBs this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU TEs were targeted 25 times with 4-6 yards to go last season– most among SEC Teams

LSU WRs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU Skill Players averaged 26.1 receptions per game (339/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 18.9

Houston Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Houston was 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

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