LSU Football Preview: Brian Kelly, Garrett Nussmeier Stare Down a Difficult Schedule

LSU football is in a complicated place these days. The college football program that has produced two of the last six Heisman winners remains a home for elite individual talent, but high-level team success has been elusive in the Brian Kelly era. 

The Tigers have won zero championships and earned zero playoff berths since the incredible 2019 run with Joe Burrow. (They did make the SEC championship game in 2022, losing to Georgia.)

LSU fans hope that Year No. 4 of the Kelly era could produce different results. The Tigers once again have a clear Heisman candidate in Garrett Nussmeier, so expectations in the LSU football odds market are relatively high. 

But do the Tigers have the pieces – or the schedule – to return to the SEC title picture? Below is my best guess.

LSU Football Season Preview

LSU has a strong year-to-year history of stocking the shelves with strong athletes at running back, receiver, and defensive back. 

For the most part, I expect that to continue this year. LSU returns 16 starters from last year’s team, including Nussmeier. The Tigers also added nice pieces to the roster through the transfer portal. Keep an eye on former Kentucky receiver Barion Brown, who averaged about 12 yards per catch with considerably worse quarterback play.

Not much more needs to be said about Nussmeier, who threw for more than 4,000 yards last season and enters the season as one of the top favorites in the Heisman Trophy odds market. 

What I’m most interested in is the bodies at the line of scrimmage. LSU lost All-American left tackle Will Campbell and All-Conference right tackle Emery Jones to the NFL Draft. Guards Garrett Dellinger and Miles Frazier were also drafted. That means the entire offensive line needs to be rebuilt around center Braelin Moore, and that could be a dicey result against SEC defensive fronts.

LSU’s defensive front is mostly gone from last year, but I trust that Kelly’s staff can probably rebuild that unit a little more easily. 

For pessimistically inclined fans, the result could be that LSU has the talent at receiver and quarterback to field an excellent offense, but a protection unit that lowers the ceiling on what that offense can functionally do. 

And as you’ll see below, LSU’s schedule doesn’t allow the Tigers a lot of time to get up to speed.

LSU Football Win Total 2025

At the BetMGM online sportsbook, LSU’s win total is 8.5, with -160 juice to the over. Bettors can buy the under at +135. 

As of Aug. 19, 82% of tickets and 92% of the overall handle at BetMGM were on the LSU over. 

The numbers here may seem a bit more one-sided than many other win totals because Louisiana college sports fans, in particular, have a well-established culture of betting on their Tigers.

For all the win totals and college football odds at BetMGM, make sure you check out my broader college football win totals mega-preview.

LSU Football Schedule Analysis

I’m quite confident in predicting that LSU will not be accused of playing an easy schedule this year. The Tigers open up with a true road game at Clemson in Week 1. Before the end of September, they’ll also have to play a road game at Ole Miss and a home game against quasi-rival Florida.

LSU also draws South Carolina, Alabama, and Oklahoma later in the season. 

In total, that means LSU will play Alabama, plus three of the most popular conference dark horses – Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Florida. All three teams have Heisman-hopeful quarterbacks. 

That’s a lot of potential carnage for a team offering a rich price for an under 8.5. And that’s to say nothing of games like Texas A&M or at Vanderbilt, which are far from walkovers. 

And as if all that wasn’t bad enough, LSU will play four different conference games this season where their opponent is coming off a bye: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Arkansas. 

LSU Football Win Total Prediction 2025

I am predicting Under 8.5 wins for LSU football in 2025.

LSU has the talent and the coaching pedigree to compete closer to the top end of the SEC. But the market is offering a lucrative price for an oft-underachieving team to go 8-4 (or worse) against a difficult schedule. 

To me, that seems like a no-brainer.  There are just too many potential land mines on the schedule.

LSU Football Win Total Prediction: Under 8.5 (+135)