LSU vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:53 AM

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Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer watches warm-ups before an NCAA college football game against Western Kentucky, Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

Alabama is a -10 point favorite vs. LSU
LSU vs. Alabama Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

LSU (5-3) visit Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on Alabama (7-1) on Nov. 8 in Tuscaloosa, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).

The LSU vs. Alabama Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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LSU vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
LSU	+10 -110	49.5 -110	300
Alabama	-10 -110	49.5 -110	-375

LSU vs Alabama Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 77.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both LSU and Alabama, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

LSU vs Alabama Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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LSU Best Bets Today

LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.15 Units / 4% ROI)
LSU has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.82 Units / 21% ROI)
LSU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)

Alabama Best Bets Today

Alabama have covered the Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Alabama has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Alabama has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 55% ROI)
Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.35 Units / -17.65% ROI).

LSU is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 8.06% ROI
LSU is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
LSU is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama iss 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI).

Alabama is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 2.11% ROI
Alabama is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Alabama is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Alabama Skill Players averaged 20.7 yards per reception (497 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Alabama Skill Players averaged 21.9 yards per reception (636 yards/29 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Alabama WRs averaged 29.0 yards per reception (348 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Alabama have thrown 24 TDs and just one interception this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.2

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Alabama is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .599

Alabama was 9-2 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Alabama was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .602

Alabama was 8-1 (.889) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Matchup Notes for LSU vs. Alabama