- Louisville is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Pitt
- Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Louisville (3-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on Pittsburgh (2-1) on Sep. 27 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).
The Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Louisville | -4.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | -185 |
| Pittsburgh | +4.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | 155 |
Louisville vs Pittsburgh Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 84.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 84.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Louisville Best Bets Today
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Pittsburgh Best Bets Today
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 3% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Louisville is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 4.04% ROI
- Louisville is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Louisville is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pitt iss 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -8.4% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 4,210 passing yards in 16 games (263.1 YPG) since the 2024 season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 253.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (109 yards / 6 touches) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 Yards per Carry (109 yards/6 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-3rd-best among ACC skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s QBs has thrown for 945 passing yards in 3 games (315.0 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 114.7 passing yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-3rd-best among ACC skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s QBs has thrown for 945 passing yards in 3 games (315.0 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 114.7 passing yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 4,210 passing yards in 16 games (263.1 YPG) since the 2024 season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 253.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (109 yards / 6 touches) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 Yards per Carry (109 yards/6 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 4,210 passing yards in 16 games (263.1 YPG) since the 2024 season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 253.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (109 yards / 6 touches) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 Yards per Carry (109 yards/6 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-3rd-best among ACC skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s QBs has thrown for 945 passing yards in 3 games (315.0 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 114.7 passing yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 518 attempts since the 2024 season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 4,210 passing yards in 16 games (263.1 YPG) since the 2024 season — 31st-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 253.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (109 yards / 6 touches) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Louisville RBs have averaged 18.2 Yards per Carry (109 yards/6 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Pittsburgh Defensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh has gained 945 yards on 69 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-3rd-best among ACC skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s QBs has thrown for 945 passing yards in 3 games (315.0 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 114.7 passing yards per game this season — best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 12 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
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