- Liberty is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Bowling Green
- Liberty vs. Bowling Green Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Liberty (1-1) visit Doyt L. Perry Stadium to take on Bowling Green (1-1) on Sep. 13 in Bowling Green, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EDT.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Liberty vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Liberty vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Liberty | -6.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -225 |
| Bowling Green | ++6.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | 185 |
Liberty vs Bowling Green Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 64.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Bowling Green, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Liberty vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Liberty Best Bets Today
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Bowling Green Best Bets Today
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -2.96% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Bowling Green is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bowling Green is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Liberty was undefeated (6-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .399
Liberty was 6-1 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .604
Liberty was 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .375
Liberty was 6-1 (.857) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Bowling Green is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .386
Bowling Green was 7-2 (.778) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Matchup Notes for Liberty vs. Bowling Green
Bowling Green’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 54 attempts this season — T-25th-best among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.7% of attempts this season — 18th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has 140 receptions in 15 games (9.3 per game) since the 2024 season — best among FBS TEs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 14.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Bowling Green’s WRs has 112 receptions in 15 games (just 7.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 10.3 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty has gained 511 yards on 38 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 142 receptions in 14 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 10.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 2,526 passing yards in 14 games (just 180.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — T-19th-worst among FBS offenses. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 190.7 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has gained 511 yards on 38 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 142 receptions in 14 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 10.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 2,526 passing yards in 14 games (just 180.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — T-19th-worst among FBS offenses. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 190.7 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty RBs have averaged 190.6 rushing yards per game (2,668/14) since the 2024 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 126.9
Liberty’s WRs has 142 receptions in 14 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 13.5 times per game (176/13) last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Bowling Green’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 54 attempts this season — T-25th-best among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.7% of attempts this season — 18th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 9.3 receptions per game (140/15) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Bowling Green TEs had 26 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– most among FBS Teams
Liberty Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty has not allowed a first down on any of their opponents’ 27 rush attempts on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Liberty did not allow a first down on any of their opponents’ 25 rush attempts on 3rd and long last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (17 completions/43 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%
Bowling Green Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Bowling Green allowed opponents to catch just 15 of 39 passes (39% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Bowling Green has not allowed an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 30 carries this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%
Bowling Green allowed opponents to catch just 15 of 39 passes (39% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
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