Kentucky vs South Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 5

South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer reacts to a call during the second quarter of the Gator Bowl NCAA college football game against Notre Dame on Friday, Dec. 30, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
(AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
  • South Carolina is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Kentucky
  • Kentucky vs. South Carolina Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • TV Channel: SECN

Kentucky (2-1) visit Williams-Brice Stadium to take on South Carolina (2-2) on Sep. 27 in Columbia, SC. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT.

South Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Kentucky vs. South Carolina Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Kentucky vs. South Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kentucky+6.5 -10546.5 -110200
South Carolina -6.5 -11546.5 -110-250

Kentucky vs South Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts South Carolina will win this game with 66.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and South Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kentucky vs South Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Carolina will cover the spread with 65.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+1.65 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • South Carolina have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • South Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • South Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.46 Units / 12% ROI)
  • South Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • South Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 8% ROI)

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Kentucky is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.99% ROI
  • Kentucky is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Kentucky is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

South Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Carolina iss 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • South Carolina is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -30.1% ROI
  • South Carolina is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • South Carolina is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. South Carolina

Kentucky WRs have averaged just 6.7 receptions per game (20/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.3

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

Kentucky Skill Players have averaged just 12.7 receptions per game (38/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 20.5

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.4

Kentucky WRs have caught just 20 of 42 passes (48% Reception Pct) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 67%

South Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

South Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 733 passing yards in 4 games (just 183.2 YPG) this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 278.3 passing yards per game this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — worst among SEC defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has 162 receptions in 17 games (just 9.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Matchup Notes for Kentucky vs. South Carolina

South Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 733 passing yards in 4 games (just 183.2 YPG) this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 278.3 passing yards per game this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — worst among SEC defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has 162 receptions in 17 games (just 9.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Kentucky WRs have averaged just 6.7 receptions per game (20/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.3

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

Kentucky Skill Players have averaged just 12.7 receptions per game (38/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 20.5

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.4

Kentucky WRs have caught just 20 of 42 passes (48% Reception Pct) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 67%

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky WRs have averaged just 6.7 receptions per game (20/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.3

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

Kentucky Skill Players have averaged just 12.7 receptions per game (38/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 20.5

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.4

Kentucky WRs have caught just 20 of 42 passes (48% Reception Pct) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 67%

South Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

South Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 733 passing yards in 4 games (just 183.2 YPG) this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 278.3 passing yards per game this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — worst among SEC defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has 162 receptions in 17 games (just 9.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky WRs have averaged just 6.7 receptions per game (20/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.3

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

Kentucky Skill Players have averaged just 12.7 receptions per game (38/3) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 20.5

Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.4

Kentucky WRs have caught just 20 of 42 passes (48% Reception Pct) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 67%

South Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends

South Carolina’s QBs has thrown for 733 passing yards in 4 games (just 183.2 YPG) this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 278.3 passing yards per game this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 101 attempts this season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — worst among SEC defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Carolina’s WRs has 162 receptions in 17 games (just 9.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.


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