Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 28, 2025, 10:31 AM

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FILE - Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm shouts instructions to his team during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023. Louisville enters without Jack Plummer, who led Jeff Brohm's first-year program to its first ACC title game berth. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley, FIle)

(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

Louisville is a -3 point favorite vs. Kentucky
Kentucky vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: ACCN

Kentucky (5-6) visit L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to take on Louisville (7-4) on Nov. 29 in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Kentucky vs. Louisville Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Kentucky vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kentucky	+3 -115	46.5 -105	130
Louisville	-3 -105	46.5 -115	-155

Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 59.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kentucky vs Louisville Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 50.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kentucky Best Bets Today

Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.22 Units / 9% ROI)
Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.05 Units / 2% ROI)

Louisville Best Bets Today

Louisville has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+2.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

Kentucky is 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 3.34% ROI
Kentucky is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 30.58% ROI
Kentucky is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -38.84% ROI

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville iss 3-8 against the spread this college football season (-5.75 Units / -47.72% ROI).

Louisville is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.26% ROI
Louisville is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Louisville is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

Louisville RBs have averaged 13.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (194 yards / 14 touches) on 3rd and short this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

Louisville RBs have averaged 6.8 Yards per Carry (1,581 yards/231 carries) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Louisville have thrown 4 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6

Louisville have just 228.9 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 245.2 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Louisville RBs averaged 9.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (365 yards / 40 touches) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Louisville has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 2 of 317 attempts (1%) this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 2%

Louisville tackled opponents for a loss on 82 of 464 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) last season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of 89% (8 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: 64%

Louisville has allowed 98.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 139.9

Louisville has allowed just 10.3 yards per completion (1,880 yards/182 completions) this season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: 11.5

Matchup Notes for Kentucky vs. Louisville