Kansas St vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 02, 2025, 2:42 PM

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

Baylor is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Kansas St
Kansas State vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Kansas State (2-3) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (3-2) on Oct. 4 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Kansas State vs. Baylor Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Kansas State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kansas State	+6.5 -105	61.5 -110	200
Baylor	-6.5 -115	61.5 -110	-250

Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 72.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas St and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas State vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 64.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kansas State Best Bets Today

Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.97 Units / 26% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 9% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets Today

Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas St is 1-4 against the spread this college football season (-3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI).

Kansas State is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -18.08% ROI
Kansas State is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Kansas State is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor iss 1-4 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -62.5% ROI).

Baylor is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -1.14% ROI
Baylor is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Baylor is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 77 of 668 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Baylor allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (11 completions/28 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 56%

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 15 of 177 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

Kansas State TEs have no touchdowns on 19 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 8.1

Kansas State has averaged just 11.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas State TEs have no touchdowns on 19 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.4

Kansas State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Big 12 Teams

Matchup Notes for Kansas State vs. Baylor