- James Madison is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Liberty
- James Madison vs. Liberty Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
James Madison (1-1) visit Williams Stadium to take on Liberty (1-2) on Sep. 20 in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
James Madison is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).
The James Madison vs. Liberty Over/Under is 46.5 total points.
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James Madison vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| James Madison | -8.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -325 |
| Liberty | +8.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | 260 |
James Madison vs Liberty Prediction:
The winning team model predicts James Madison will win this game with 72.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both James Madison and Liberty, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
James Madison vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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James Madison Best Bets Today
- James Madison have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- James Madison has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- James Madison have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- James Madison has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+1.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- James Madison has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+1.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets Today
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 3% ROI)
James Madison Against the Spread (ATS) Record
James Madison is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- James Madison is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- James Madison is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -50% ROI
- James Madison is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 45.45% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty iss 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Liberty is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -7.76% ROI
- Liberty is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Liberty is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
James Madison: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
James Madison was 10-1 (.909) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .628
James Madison was 7-1 (.875) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
James Madison was 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .668
James Madison was 7-3 (.700) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. James Madison
Liberty was 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .375
Liberty was undefeated (6-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .399
Liberty was 13-1 (.929) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .527
Liberty was undefeated (13-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .580
Matchup Notes for James Madison vs. Liberty
Liberty’s WRs has 152 receptions in 15 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS WRs. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 87 attempts this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.0% of attempts this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 376 attempts since the 2024 season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts since the 2024 season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 58 attempts this season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.1% of attempts this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison’s WRs has gained 191 yards on 21 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison’s QBs has thrown for 282 passing yards in 2 games (just 141.0 YPG) this season — 13th-worst among FBS teams. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 110.0 passing yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison Offensive Stats & Trends
James Madison RBs have averaged 10.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (131 yards / 12 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
James Madison’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 58 attempts this season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.1% of attempts this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison’s WRs has gained 191 yards on 21 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison’s QBs has thrown for 282 passing yards in 2 games (just 141.0 YPG) this season — 13th-worst among FBS teams. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 110.0 passing yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison’s offense has thrown for 282 passing yards in 2 games (just 141.0 YPG) this season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 110.0 passing yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty’s WRs has 152 receptions in 15 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS WRs. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 87 attempts this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.0% of attempts this season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 376 attempts since the 2024 season — 20th-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts since the 2024 season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 152 receptions in 15 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS WRs. James Madison’s defense has allowed just 10.3 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 87 attempts this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. James Madison’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.0% of attempts this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.
James Madison Defensive Stats & Trends
James Madison’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 40% of PATs this season– 2nd-highest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
James Madison has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (23 completions/49 attempts) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
James Madison has allowed opponents to catch just 23 of 49 passes (47% Reception Pct) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
James Madison has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 49 attempts (2%) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
James Madison has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (23 completions/49 attempts) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Liberty Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (35 completions/74 attempts) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (7 completions/20 attempts) on 1st down this season– best in FBS; Average: 63%
Liberty has allowed one passing TD (74 pass attempts) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.8
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (35 completions/74 attempts) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
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