Jacksonville St vs UTEP Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:54 AM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Jacksonville St is a -1.5 point favorite vs. UTEP
Jacksonville State vs. UTEP Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Jacksonville State (5-3) visit Sun Bowl to take on UTEP (2-6) on Nov. 8 in El Paso, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST.

Jacksonville St is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Jacksonville State vs. UTEP Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Jacksonville State vs. UTEP Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jacksonville State	-1.5 -105	49.5 -115	-115
UTEP	+1.5 -115	49.5 -105	-105

Jacksonville State vs UTEP Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Jacksonville State will win this game with 53.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Jacksonville St and UTEP, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Jacksonville State vs UTEP Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTEP will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Jacksonville State Best Bets Today

Jacksonville State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Jacksonville State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Jacksonville State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
Jacksonville State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Jacksonville State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)

UTEP Best Bets Today

UTEP has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
UTEP has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 13% ROI)
UTEP has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.72 Units / 12% ROI)
UTEP has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)

Jacksonville State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Jacksonville St is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

Jacksonville State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 23.56% ROI
Jacksonville State is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Jacksonville State is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP iss 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.57% ROI).

UTEP is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -39.42% ROI
UTEP is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI
UTEP is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI

Jacksonville State: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

UTEP has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 17 rushing attempts (41% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in FBS; Average: 11%.

UTEP has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 17 rushing attempts (41% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%.

UTEP has allowed first downs on 35% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

UTEP has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (55/549) since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

UTEP tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 77 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 19th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State was 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Jacksonville State was 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Jacksonville State was 3-5 (.375) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-40th-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Jacksonville State was 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Matchup Notes for Jacksonville State vs. UTEP