- Central Florida is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Jacksonville St
- Jacksonville State vs. UCF Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Jacksonville State (0-0) visit Acrisure Bounce House to take on the UCF (0-0) on Aug. 28 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).
The Jacksonville State vs. UCF Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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Jacksonville State vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jacksonville State | +20.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +750 |
| UCF | -20.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -1200 |
Jacksonville State vs UCF Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 79.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Jacksonville St and Central Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Jacksonville State vs UCF Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 60.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Jacksonville State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Jacksonville State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jacksonville State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jacksonville State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jacksonville State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jacksonville State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
UCF Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- UCF has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Central Florida was 5-7 against the spread last college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).
- UCF is 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -63.16% ROI
- UCF is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
- UCF is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Jacksonville State: Keys to the Game vs. UCF
Jacksonville State is 13-5 (.722) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .383
Jacksonville State is 15-6 (.714) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .636
Jacksonville State is 12-3 (.800) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .543
Jacksonville State was 8-3 (.727) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2024 season– 17th-best in FBS; Average: .431
UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Jacksonville State
UCF was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460
UCF was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .415
UCF is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .458
UCF was 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500
Matchup Notes for Jacksonville State vs. UCF
UCF’s RBs had 36.1 receiving yards per game last season — 22nd-best among FBS RBs. Jacksonville State’s defense allowed just 16.7 receiving yards per game to RBs last season — 15th-best among FBS defenses.
Dylan Wade (UCF) gained 20 or more yards on 17.2% of 29 receptions last season — 10th-best of Qualified Power 5 Tight Ends. Jacksonville State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 21.5% of receptions last season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Jacksonville State’s RBs averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC last season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Jacksonville State’s RBs averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense allowed just 5.4 RAC to RBs last season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Jacksonville State’s RBs gained 292 yards on 24 receptions (12.2 YPR) last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense allowed just 5.2 Yards Per Reception to RBs last season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.
Jacksonville State Offensive Stats & Trends
Jacksonville State TEs have averaged 22.8 yards per reception (137 yards/6 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Jacksonville State TEs averaged 27.2 yards per reception (109 yards/4 catches) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Jacksonville State’s RBs averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. UCF’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC last season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Jacksonville State rushed for 38 TDs in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-most among FBS Offenses
Jacksonville State rushed for 51 TDs in the 2024 season– most among FBS Offenses
UCF Offensive Stats & Trends
UCF Skill Players caught just 34 of 76 passes(45% Reception Pct) on 3rd down in the 2024 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 59%
UCF WRs have averaged 24.6 yards per reception (345 yards/14 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
UCF Skill Players have averaged 17.6 yards per reception (387 yards/22 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.5
UCF Skill Players have averaged 17.6 yards per reception (387 yards/22 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4
UCF WRs have no touchdowns on 18 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.9
Jacksonville State Defensive Stats & Trends
Jacksonville State has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (487 yards / 180 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Jacksonville State allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (14 completions/33 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Jacksonville State has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (487 yards / 180 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.8
Jacksonville State has tackled opponents for a loss on 10 of 74 rushing attempts (14% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.
Jacksonville State allowed 2.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (264 yards / 104 touches) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.7
UCF Defensive Stats & Trends
UCF allowed opponents to catch 33 of 45 passes (73% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 57%
UCF has tackled opponents for a loss on 29 of 143 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 14%.
UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.2
UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4
UCF allowed 14 TD passes in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 2nd-most in the Big 12
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