Iowa vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
  • USC is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Iowa
  • Iowa vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • TV Channel: BTN

Iowa (6-3) visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on USC (7-2) on Nov. 15 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

USC is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Iowa vs. USC Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Iowa vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Iowa+6.5 -10549.5 -110200
USC -6.5 -11549.5 -110-250

Iowa vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 62.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.


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  • Iowa have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.74 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Iowa has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Iowa has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Iowa has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Iowa has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • USC has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
  • USC has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • USC have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.84 Units / 39.14% ROI).

  • Iowa is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 9.13% ROI
  • Iowa is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Iowa is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.04% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC iss 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

  • USC is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 3.14% ROI
  • USC is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • USC is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. USC

USC is 8-4 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .526

USC is 10-1 (.909) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .664

USC is 11-4 (.733) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .536

USC is 1-2 (.333) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .506

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

USC did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 12 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12.5

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

USC has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 38 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Matchup Notes for Iowa vs. USC

USC did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 12 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12.5

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

USC has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 38 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

USC is 8-4 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .526

USC is 10-1 (.909) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .664

USC is 11-4 (.733) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .536

USC is 1-2 (.333) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .506

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

USC is 8-4 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .526

USC is 10-1 (.909) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .664

USC is 11-4 (.733) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .536

USC is 1-2 (.333) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .506

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 12 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12.5

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

USC has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 38 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Iowa Defensive Stats & Trends

USC is 8-4 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .526

USC is 10-1 (.909) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .664

USC is 11-4 (.733) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .536

USC is 1-2 (.333) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .506

USC Defensive Stats & Trends

USC did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 12 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12.5

USC had no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

USC has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 38 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.


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