Iowa St vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:54 AM

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A general view of the exterior of Amon G. Carter Stadium before an NCAA college football game between TCU and Oklahoma State in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022.

(AP Photo/Sam Hodde)

TCU is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Iowa St
Iowa State vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

Iowa State (5-4) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (6-2) on Nov. 8 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Iowa State vs. TCU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Iowa State vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa State	+6.5 -110	56.5 -105	200
TCU	-6.5 -110	56.5 -115	-250

Iowa State vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 66.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa St and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa State vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 54.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa State Best Bets Today

Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.00 Units / 3% ROI)

TCU Best Bets Today

TCU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 49% ROI)
TCU has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 15% ROI)

Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa St is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.55 Units / -25.63% ROI).

Iowa State is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -4.44% ROI
Iowa State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Iowa State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU iss 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 8% ROI).

TCU is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 13.1% ROI
TCU is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
TCU is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

TCU Skill Players have averaged 15.7 yards per reception (1,366 yards/87 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.2

TCU WRs have averaged 18.1 yards per reception (1,194 yards/66 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.5

TCU has 515 receptions in 21 games (24.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 9th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 15.7 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU WRs have averaged 23.9 yards per reception (454 yards/19 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.9

TCU’s WRs has gained 1,848 yards on 122 receptions (15.1 YPR) this season — T-3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed 14.7 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State

Iowa State TEs have been targeted 32 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Iowa State TEs have been targeted 97 times this season– most among FBS Teams

Iowa State TEs have been targeted 32 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Iowa State TEs have averaged 7.3 receptions per game (66/9) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Iowa State have thrown 0 TDs on 38 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 21.2

Matchup Notes for Iowa State vs. TCU