Iowa St vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 02, 2025, 2:42 PM

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FILE - Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield, center, leads the team onto the field before an NCAA college football game against Central Florida, Oct. 12, 2024, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Cincinnati is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Iowa St
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

Iowa State (5-0) visit Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati (3-1) on Oct. 4 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Cincinnati is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa State	+1.5 -110	55.5 -110	100
Cincinnati	-1.5 -110	55.5 -110	-120

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 53.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa St and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Iowa State will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa State Best Bets Today

Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Iowa State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.90 Units / 12% ROI)

Cincinnati Best Bets Today

Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.35 Units / 30% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.55 Units / 41% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.73 Units / 10% ROI)

Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa St is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI).

Iowa State is 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 19.67% ROI
Iowa State is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Iowa State is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati iss 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Cincinnati is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 9.21% ROI
Cincinnati is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Cincinnati is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati have averaged 33.0 yards per completion (132 yards/4 completions) with over 10 yards to go this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.0

Cincinnati Skill Players have averaged 33.0 yards per reception (132 yards/4 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.1

Cincinnati RBs averaged 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (159 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Cincinnati Skill Players have averaged 33.0 yards per reception (132 yards/4 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Cincinnati have not been sacked (72 pass attempts) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.6

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State

Iowa State allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 58%

Iowa State opponents averaged just 14.0 completions per game (196 / 14) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8

Iowa State allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Iowa State has no interceptions (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 34.7

Iowa State tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 49 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Matchup Notes for Iowa State vs. Cincinnati