- Iowa St is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Iowa State vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Iowa State (3-0) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on Arkansas State (1-1) on Sep. 13 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
Iowa St is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).
The Iowa State vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 55.5 total points.
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Iowa State vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Iowa State | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -1600 |
| Arkansas State | +20.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | 900 |
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 84.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa St and Arkansas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Iowa State will cover the spread with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Iowa State Best Bets Today
- Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Iowa State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Arkansas State Best Bets Today
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa St is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 60.61% ROI).
- Iowa State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 32.51% ROI
- Iowa State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Iowa State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Arkansas State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Iowa State was 9-3 (.750) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Iowa State is 12-2 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .643
Iowa State is 14-3 (.824) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645
Iowa State is 12-2 (.857) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State
Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552
Arkansas State is 3-6 (.333) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .482
Arkansas State is 7-5 (.583) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .453
Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Matchup Notes for Iowa State vs. Arkansas State
Arkansas State has 320 receptions in 15 games (21.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 14.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has 320 receptions in 15 games (21.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 14.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — best among P5 defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 14.0 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs has 26 receptions in 3 games (8.7 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.1 RAC since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State Offensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State TEs have been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
Iowa State TEs have 13 receptions in the 1st half this season– most among Big 12 Teams
Iowa State TEs have been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Big 12 Teams
Iowa State TEs have 246 receiving yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Iowa State TEs have been targeted 25 times this season– most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has 320 receptions in 15 games (21.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 14.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has 320 receptions in 15 games (21.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 14.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — best among P5 defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has averaged just 6.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has 320 receptions in 15 games (21.3 per game) since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 14.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Arkansas State has 47 receptions in 2 games (23.5 per game) this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 16.3 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State Defensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 59 pass attempts this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 11.0
Iowa State allowed opponents to catch just 12 of 33 passes (36% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Iowa State allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best in FBS; Average: 58%
Iowa State allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (196 completions/373 attempts) last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Iowa State allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%
Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State has allowed 37 rushing TDs since the 2024 season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 94 of 483 carries (20%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%
Arkansas State has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,997 yards / 836 touches) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.8
Arkansas State allowed passes of 20+ yards on 56 of 389 attempts (14%) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
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