Indiana vs Penn St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:55 AM

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James Franklin has been head coach of Penn State football since January 2014.

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Indiana is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Penn St
Indiana vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

Indiana (9-0) visit West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium to take on Penn State (3-5) on Nov. 8 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Indiana is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-115).

The Indiana vs. Penn State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Indiana vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Indiana	-14.5 -115	48.5 -110	-700
Penn State	+14.5 -105	48.5 -110	500

Indiana vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Indiana will win this game with 78.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Indiana and Penn St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Indiana vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Indiana will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Indiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Indiana is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Indiana is 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.2 Units / 5.52% ROI
Indiana is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Indiana is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn St iss 1-7 against the spread this college football season (-6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI).

Penn State is 0-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -43.85 Units / -100% ROI
Penn State is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
Penn State is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Indiana: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Indiana

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Penn State TEs were targeted 169 times last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Penn State TEs were targeted 169 times last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State WRs have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (162 yards/8 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.6

Penn State TEs were targeted 23 times in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-most among Big Ten Teams

Matchup Notes for Indiana vs. Penn State