- Illinois is a -3 point favorite vs. Duke
- Illinois vs. Duke Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
Illinois (1-0) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on Duke (1-0) on Sep. 6 in Durham, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Illinois is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Illinois vs. Duke Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Illinois vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Illinois | -3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -155 |
| Duke | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +130 |
Illinois vs Duke Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 81.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Duke, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Illinois vs Duke Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 75.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 95% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 3 games at home (+4.00 Units / 119% ROI)
- Duke have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Duke have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 90% ROI)
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Illinois is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Illinois is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Illinois is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke iss 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Duke is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Duke is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Duke is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
Illinois was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Illinois was 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Illinois was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2024 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .574
Illinois was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .692
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
Duke was 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .633
Duke was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .602
Duke was 8-3 (.727) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2024 season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .443
Duke was 8-3 (.727) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2024 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .482
Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Duke
Duke’s RBs has rushed for 169 yards on 21 carries (8.0 YPC) this season — T-8th-best among FBS RBs. Illinois’s defense have allowed just 2.1 YPC to RBs this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.
Duke’s RBs has rushed for 169 yards on 21 carries (8.0 YPC) this season — T-8th-best among FBS RBs. Illinois’s defense have allowed just 1.0 YPC this season — best among Big Ten defenses.
Duke’s RBs has rushed for 169 yards on 21 carries (8.0 YPC) this season — T-8th-best among FBS RBs. Illinois’s defense have allowed just 1.0 YPC this season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has gained 195 yards on 14 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed 15.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch this season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed 15.5 RAC to WRs this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Hank Beatty (ILL) has gained 108 yards after catch this season — most of Qualified Big Ten Skill Players. Duke’s defense has allowed 112 yards after catch this season — 2nd-fewest among ACC defenses.
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois Skill Players averaged 18.3 yards per reception (531 yards/29 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.6
Illinois TEs have averaged 18.0 yards per reception (36 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.1
Illinois’s WRs has gained 195 yards on 14 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed 15.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Illinois WRs averaged 20.7 yards per reception (435 yards/21 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 14.2
Illinois Skill Players had no touchdowns on 18 receptions in close and late situations in the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.9
Duke QBs have 5 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Duke WRs have been targeted 13 times in the 1st quarter this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Duke WRs have averaged 22.0 receptions per game (22/1) this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.9
Duke WRs have averaged 22.0 receptions per game (22/1) this season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7
Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 61 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 61 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 70 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 39 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 42 of 408 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the 2024 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Duke Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke allowed 9 rushing TDs on 71 carries (7.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8
Duke allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (25 completions/60 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Duke allowed 9 rushing TDs on 71 carries (7.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Duke tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 39 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
Duke averaged 3.4 sacks per game in the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1
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