Houston vs Central Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

• Houston is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Central Florida
• Houston vs. UCF Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
• TV Channel: FS1

Houston (7-2) visit Acrisure Bounce House to take on UCF (4-4) on Nov. 7 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Houston is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Houston vs. UCF Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Houston vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Houston vs UCF Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 50.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and Central Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Houston vs UCF Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Houston will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Houston Best Bets Today

• Houston has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.51 Units / 25% ROI)
• Houston has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Houston has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Houston have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

UCF Best Bets Today

• UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• UCF has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 47% ROI)
• UCF has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• UCF have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• UCF have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.63 Units / 23% ROI)

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.14% ROI).

• Houston is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.04% ROI
• Houston is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Houston is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida iss 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• UCF is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -5.05% ROI
• UCF is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
• UCF is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

UCF has allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (148 yards / 50 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

UCF has not recorded a sack (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.7

UCF has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 31 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 13%.

UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4

Matchup Notes for Houston vs. UCF

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

UCF has allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (148 yards / 50 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

UCF has not recorded a sack (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.7

UCF has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 31 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 13%.

UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

UCF has allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (148 yards / 50 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

UCF has not recorded a sack (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.7

UCF has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 31 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 13%.

UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4

Houston Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Houston was 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Houston was 1-7 (.125) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Houston was winless (0-7) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

UCF Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

UCF has allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (148 yards / 50 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

UCF has not recorded a sack (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.7

UCF has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 31 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 13%.

UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4

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