Houston vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 28, 2025, 10:31 AM

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

Baylor is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Houston
Houston vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
TV Channel: TNT | tru | HBOM

Houston (8-3) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (5-6) on Nov. 29 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-118).

The Houston vs. Baylor Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Houston vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Houston	+2.5 -102	59.5 -110	115
Baylor	-2.5 -118	59.5 -110	-140

Houston vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Houston vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 50.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Houston Best Bets Today

Houston has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Houston has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Houston have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Houston has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.41 Units / 25% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets Today

Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.90 Units / 1% ROI)

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.4% ROI).

Houston is 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.87% ROI
Houston is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Houston is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor iss 2-9 against the spread this college football season (-8.05 Units / -65.71% ROI).

Baylor is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -8.85% ROI
Baylor is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Baylor is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Baylor has allowed 8.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (280 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 5.2

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 38 of 376 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

Baylor has allowed first downs on 35% of rush attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 18%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 38 of 376 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 42.9 times per game (386/9) this season– highest among Big 12 Teams; Average: 30.4

Baylor TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor Skill Players have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor Skill Players have averaged 26.1 receptions per game (235/9) this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 19.2

Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 42.9 times per game (386/9) this season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.4

Matchup Notes for Houston vs. Baylor