Hawaii vs Air Force Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 26, 2025, 10:13 AM

min read

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun warms up before an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, at Air Force Academy, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Air Force is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Hawaii
Hawaii vs. Air Force Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

Hawaii (3-2) visit Falcon Stadium to take on Air Force (1-2) on Sep. 27 in U.S. Air Force Academy, CO. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.

Air Force is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Hawaii vs. Air Force Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

Bet now on Air Force vs Hawaii & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Hawaii vs. Air Force Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Hawaii	+6.5 -110	53.5 -110	200
Air Force	-6.5 -110	53.5 -110	-250

Hawaii vs Air Force Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 76.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Hawaii and Air Force, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Hawaii vs Air Force Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Air Force will cover the spread with 76.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Air Force vs Hawaii and all games with BetMGM

Get a New Cusotmer Offer

Hawaii Best Bets Today

Hawaii has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
Hawaii has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Hawaii have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Hawaii have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.96 Units / 14% ROI)
Hawaii have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)

Air Force Best Bets Today

Air Force has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.13 Units / 53% ROI)
Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.26 Units / 9% ROI)
Air Force has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+1.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Hawaii Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Hawaii is 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Hawaii is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Hawaii is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Hawaii is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force iss 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Air Force is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -100% ROI
Air Force is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Air Force is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Hawaii: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Hawai’i TEs had no touchdowns on 1 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

Hawai’i Skill Players have been targeted 67 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Hawai’i TEs have no touchdowns on 4 receptions since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.5

Hawai’i WRs have been targeted 58 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Hawai’i WRs have been targeted 22.0 times per game (110/5) in the 2nd half this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 9.2

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Hawaii

Air Force Skill Players were targeted 10.8 times per game (129/12) last season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.7

Air Force WRs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Air Force have gained 20+ yards on 13 of their 30 receptions (43%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 17%

Air Force have averaged 19.5 yards per completion (586 yards/30 completions) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9

Air Force Skill Players averaged 17.2 yards per reception (1,048 yards/61 catches) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Matchup Notes for Hawaii vs. Air Force