Georgia vs. Alabama: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

Strap in for this weekend’s college football action because the SEC is dealing a doozy. 

On Saturday night, No. 2 Georgia is traveling to No. 4 Alabama for a prime-time showdown that should be one of the top games of the year. It’s even set to be one of this season’s College GameDay locations. 

The college football odds market expects a tight game. 

Georgia vs. Alabama Odds

• Point Spread: Georgia -1.5
• Moneyline: Georgia -125  |  Alabama +105
• Over/Under: 48.5

Georgia vs. Alabama Preview

Look, this is going to be an awesome college football game. I don’t think anybody can deny that. But this game is arguably even more interesting from a handicapping and market perspective.

Let’s start with the college football futures market. Prior to Week 5, BetMGM’s college football national championship odds price Georgia as a championship co-favorite with Ohio State. That’s been the case since January, when BetMGM opened Georgia as the sensible favorite to win this year’s title.

Remember: The Bulldogs won the title in 2021 and 2022, then spent pretty much the entire 2023 regular season as the No. 1 team in the polls before losing the SEC championship game to Alabama. Because of how the other games shook out, Georgia went from No. 1 to totally out of the playoff altogether. 

Georgia enters this year’s expanded, divisionless SEC with arguably the most roster talent of any team in the conference – including Alabama. But so far, Georgia has been uneven on offense. Carson Beck is still a great college quarterback, but the offense lost its go-to playmaker in Brock Bowers. The Bulldogs won 13-12 in Week 3 at Kentucky, but in terms of yardage, they were actually outgained 284-262. 

For bettors who remain skeptical that Georgia is destined to duke it out with Ohio State in January, the run-up to this week’s Alabama game offers the chance to bet the futures market while the market is still heavily tilted toward Athens. 

Alabama (+800) has been climbing the table but would make a big jump with an outright win this weekend. Other SEC teams like Ole Miss or Tennessee could also see price changes if Georgia is perceived as less in command of the conference. Texas could become an outright favorite to win the SEC. (It’s currently a +250 cofavorite with Georgia.)

In the Heisman odds market, Carson Beck might fall into long-shot territory, and Jalen Milroe might challenge Cam Ward at the top of the table.

Now, in the actual NCAA football odds market for the game itself, there’s plenty of interesting history to go on. Georgia and Alabama have played in plenty of high-stakes head-to-head games over the last 15 years, but Georgia has played in Tuscaloosa only one other time since 2007. 

Generally, this matchup is troublesome for favorites. The favorite in the series is 3-9 ATS, and that includes six outright upsets – the last of which was last year’s SEC championship game, where Alabama knocked Georgia out of the college football playoff picture. 

With the point spread set at 1.5, bettors are essentially picking a winner here – though keep in mind that Georgia’s last game was actually a 1-point margin.

Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction

I am predicting an Alabama win on Saturday, so I’m betting Alabama +1.5.

Georgia’s game at Kentucky raised wider concerns for me about the available players and the lack of focus that’s creeping into the Bulldogs’ locker room. In my college football best bets’ column, where I also talk about this game, I mention the serious culture issue that Georgia has with continuing off-the-field incidents.

The story of this series is one team overtaking the other with the market perception lagging behind. In that vein, I’ll back Kalen DeBoer – an excellent, top-tier college football coach – at home against the Bulldogs.

Georgia vs. Alabama Pick: Alabama +1.5