- Vanderbilt is a -27.5 point favorite vs. Georgia St
- Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
Georgia State (1-2) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on Vanderbilt (3-0) on Sep. 20 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Vanderbilt is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-110).
The Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Georgia State | +27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | 1500 |
| Vanderbilt | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -5000 |
Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Vanderbilt will win this game with 88.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia St and Vanderbilt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Georgia State vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia State will cover the spread with 56.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Georgia State Best Bets Today
- Georgia State has hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 away games (+6.00 Units / 120% ROI)
- Georgia State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Georgia State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Vanderbilt Best Bets Today
- Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+16.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+12.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Vanderbilt have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Georgia St is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Georgia State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Georgia State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Georgia State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Vanderbilt iss 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Vanderbilt is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 122.5% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt
Georgia State was winless (0-6) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460
Georgia State is winless (0-8) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .431
Georgia State was winless (0-6) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424
Georgia State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State
Vanderbilt was 2-5 (.286) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Vanderbilt was 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Vanderbilt was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645
Vanderbilt was 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .582
Matchup Notes for Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s TEs has gained 219 yards on 13 receptions (16.8 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.5% of 74 attempts this season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.9% of attempts this season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.5% of 74 attempts this season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.9% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Georgia State has 331 receptions in 15 games (22.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Georgia State has 331 receptions in 15 games (22.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia State’s RBs has averaged 7.9 targets per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest among FBS RBs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to RBs since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends
Georgia State threw for 4 TDs in the Red Zone last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses
Georgia State RBs caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Georgia State Skill Players caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last week– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Georgia State has 331 receptions in 15 games (22.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Georgia State RBs were targeted 8.5 times per game (102/12) last season– 3rd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4
Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt WRs have been targeted 35 times in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– fewest among SEC Teams
Vanderbilt’s TEs has gained 219 yards on 13 receptions (16.8 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt WRs averaged just 6.6 receptions per game (86/13) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0
Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.5% of 74 attempts this season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.9% of attempts this season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 10.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (183 yards / 18 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Georgia State Defensive Stats & Trends
Georgia State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 34 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.
Georgia State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 34 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Georgia State has allowed 10 rushing TDs this season– T-4th-most in FBS
Georgia State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 45 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.
Georgia State has allowed 9 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS
Vanderbilt Defensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 11 of 65 attempts (17%) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%
Vanderbilt allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 52 attempts (19%) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%
Vanderbilt tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 39 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 11%.
Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (316 completions/470 attempts) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 60%
Vanderbilt allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 52 attempts (19%) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
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