Georgia St vs Troy Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 12:34 PM

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Balls lie on the field before an NCAA college football game between Mississippi and Vanderbilt on Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013, in Nashville, Tenn.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Troy is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Georgia St
Georgia State vs. Troy Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Georgia State (1-9) visit Veterans Memorial Stadium to take on Troy (6-4) on Nov. 22 in Troy, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

Troy is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Georgia State vs. Troy Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Georgia State vs. Troy Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Georgia State	+11.5 -110	51.5 -110	350
Troy	-11.5 -110	51.5 -110	-450

Georgia State vs Troy Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Troy will win this game with 78.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia St and Troy, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia State vs Troy Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Troy will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Georgia State Best Bets Today

Georgia State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Georgia State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+4.70 Units / 94% ROI)
Georgia State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.23 Units / 23% ROI)
Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)

Troy Best Bets Today

Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+7.30 Units / 34% ROI)
Troy has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+2.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Troy have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia St is 1-9 against the spread this college football season (-8.9 Units / -80.91% ROI).

Georgia State is 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -14.58% ROI
Georgia State is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Georgia State is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy iss 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Troy is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 17.12% ROI
Troy is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Troy is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Troy have been sacked on 15% of pass attempts (43/285) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 6%

Troy’s offense has thrown for 1,940 passing yards in 10 games (just 194.0 YPG) this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 242.2 passing yards per game this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy’s QBs has thrown for 1,940 passing yards in 10 games (just 194.0 YPG) this season — T-34th-worst among FBS teams. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 242.2 passing yards per game this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 13.1 RAC this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy RBs averaged 18.8 yards per target (94 yards/5 targets) on 3rd down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.0

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

Georgia State has allowed 10.5 touchdowns per interception (21 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Georgia State has allowed 10.5 touchdowns per interception (21 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State has intercepted 2 of 274 attempts (137.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.4

Georgia State has intercepted 2 of 274 attempts (137.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 38.6

Georgia State has forced 2 fumbles on 412 carries (206.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 48.2

Matchup Notes for Georgia State vs. Troy