- Georgia Southern is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Fresno St
- Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Georgia Southern (0-0) visit Valley Children’s Stadium to take on the Fresno State (0-1) on Aug. 30 in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EDT.
Georgia Southern is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Georgia Southern | -1.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -135 |
| Fresno State | +1.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +110 |
Georgia Southern vs Fresno State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 54.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia Southern and Fresno St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Georgia Southern vs Fresno State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Georgia Southern Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Georgia Southern has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- Georgia Southern has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Georgia Southern has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Georgia Southern has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- Georgia Southern have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Fresno State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Georgia Southern: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State
Georgia Southern is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .486
Georgia Southern is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .503
Georgia Southern was 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays in the 2024 season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
Georgia Southern was 7-4 (.636) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2024 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .431
Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia Southern
Fresno State is 9-9 (.500) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .383
Fresno State is 11-1 (.917) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .626
Fresno State was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards in the 2024 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .380
Fresno State is 11-4 (.733) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 27th-best in FBS; Average: .601
Matchup Notes for Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State
Fresno State’s WRs had 198 receptions in 13 games (15.2 per game) last season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia Southern’s defense allowed 15.5 receptions per game to WRs last season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State’s WRs had 198 receptions in 13 games (15.2 per game) last season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia Southern’s defense allowed 21.3 receptions per game last season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State had 298 receptions in 13 games (22.9 per game) last season — T-22nd-best among FBS skill players. Georgia Southern’s defense allowed 21.3 receptions per game last season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern’s WRs averaged 24.8 targets per game last season — T-20th-highest among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense allowed 13.7 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-7th-worst among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 3.4 RAC to RBs last season — best among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-7th-worst among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.9 RAC last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern Offensive Stats & Trends
Georgia Southern’s WRs averaged 24.8 targets per game last season — T-20th-highest among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense allowed 13.7 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-7th-worst among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 3.4 RAC to RBs last season — best among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-7th-worst among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.9 RAC last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Georgia Southern WRs have averaged 18.7 receptions per game (486/26) since the 2023 season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Georgia Southern RBs averaged 3.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (669 yards / 172 touches) on 1st down in the 2024 season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State RBs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs averaged just 3.8 Yards per Carry (297 yards/79 carries) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– T-10th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Fresno State RBs were targeted 10 times in short yardage situations in the 2024 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State’s WRs had 198 receptions in 13 games (15.2 per game) last season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia Southern’s defense allowed 15.5 receptions per game to WRs last season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State RBs averaged just 4.4 Yards per Carry (1,238 yards/281 carries) in the 2024 season– T-20th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Georgia Southern Defensive Stats & Trends
Georgia Southern sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (21/437) in the 2024 season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
Georgia Southern allowed a Completion Pct of 63% (277 completions/437 attempts) in the 2024 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: 61%
Georgia Southern allowed 7.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (336 yards / 47 touches) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.0
Georgia Southern has tackled opponents for a loss on 29 of 159 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 27th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Georgia Southern allowed 153 first down receptions in the 2024 season– 3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Fresno State Defensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State allowed 14 rushing TDs on 96 carries (6.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.4
Fresno State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 72 rushing attempts (1% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
Fresno State allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (91 completions/179 attempts) on 1st down in the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Fresno State allowed just 10.8 receiving yards per game (141/13) to RBs in the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 25.1
Fresno State tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 474 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) in the 2024 season– 33rd-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
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