- Fresno St is a -3 point favorite vs. Hawaii
- Fresno State vs. Hawaii Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: SPEC
Fresno State (3-1) visit Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex to take on Hawaii (3-1) on Sep. 21 in Honolulu, HI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00am EDT.
Fresno St is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Fresno State vs. Hawaii Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Fresno State vs. Hawaii Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Fresno State | -3 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -145 |
| Hawaii | +3 -115 | 47.5 -115 | 120 |
Fresno State vs Hawaii Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 84.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno St and Hawaii, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Fresno State vs Hawaii Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Hawai’i will cover the spread with 66.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Fresno State Best Bets Today
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Hawaii Best Bets Today
- Hawaii has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Hawaii have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Hawaii have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Hawaii has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- Hawaii has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Fresno St is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Fresno State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Fresno State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Fresno State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Hawaii Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Hawaii iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Hawaii is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Hawaii is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Hawaii is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. Hawaii
Fresno State was 1-4 (.200) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477
Fresno State was 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .575
Fresno State was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Fresno State is 2-4 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .558
Hawaii: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State
Hawai’i was 5-1 (.833) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Hawai’i was 2-6 (.250) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .442
Hawai’i was 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-15th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400
Hawai’i is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .647
Matchup Notes for Fresno State vs. Hawaii
Hawai’i’s WRs has averaged 34.5 targets per game this season — 3rd-highest among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed 14.5 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Hawai’i’s WRs has 324 receptions in 16 games (20.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed 13.7 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Hawai’i’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 655 attempts since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
Fresno State has gained 758 yards on 76 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) this season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Hawai’i’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Fresno State’s WRs has gained 419 yards on 39 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-21st-worst among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Fresno State’s WRs has gained 419 yards on 39 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-21st-worst among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State has gained 758 yards on 76 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) this season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Hawai’i’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Fresno State RBs have rushed for 4 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs have 6 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs were targeted 6 times in the 1st quarter last week– most among FBS Teams
Fresno State’s WRs has gained 419 yards on 39 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-21st-worst among FBS WRs. Hawai’i’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Hawaii Offensive Stats & Trends
Hawai’i’s WRs has averaged 34.5 targets per game this season — 3rd-highest among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed 14.5 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Hawai’i Skill Players have been targeted 174 times this season– most among FBS Teams
Hawai’i QBs have 4 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Hawai’i RBs have been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Hawai’i’s WRs has 324 receptions in 16 games (20.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among FBS WRs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed 13.7 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State Defensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Fresno State has no interceptions and 7 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: 6.6
Fresno State has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS
Fresno State has allowed 6 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS
Fresno State allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations last season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Hawaii Defensive Stats & Trends
Hawai’i allowed no passing TDs (35 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.9
Hawai’i did not allow any touchdowns on 23 completions last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.6
Hawai’i allowed a Completion Pct of 60% (27 completions/45 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– 33rd-worst in FBS; Average: 55%
Hawai’i allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 27 of 365 attempts (7%) last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: 10%
Hawai’i has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 7 of 116 attempts (6%) this season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: 9%
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