Florida State vs Miami: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

After a relaxing, poolside bye week, the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes return to action Saturday against another in-state rival. They’ll kick off in Tallahassee in the ABC night slot against Florida State, looking for a season sweep of Florida-based opponents.

Will the Miami football odds market remain a profitable target for bettors? Or is Florida State live to jump back into the ACC championship race? I’ve got my personal betting preview below. 

Florida State vs Miami Odds

• Point Spread: Miami -4.5
• Moneyline: Florida State -200  |  Miami (FL) +165
• Over/Under: 54.5

Florida State vs Miami Preview

Handicapping this game revolves around a key question: What do you think of Florida State after last week’s loss at Virginia?

The market appears to have a big problem with it, pricing the Seminoles as a home dog north of +3. FSU also took a major drop in the AP Poll and ACC futures table. 

Broadly speaking, I see this as an overcorrection. Florida State fixed its quarterback issues from last season when it brought in Thomas Castellanos from Boston College, so it’s playing a lot closer to its 2023 form than last year. It ranks No. 3 nationally with +0.44 net EPA/play. 

The Alabama win wasn’t a fluke. Virginia is just good this year, and the Cavaliers won a coin-toss game in double overtime. 

Miami is no slouch either, ranking ninth nationally in net EPA/play. Miami also should enjoy the best single strategic advantage in the game, since its strong offensive line and powerful ground game will be able to find decent running room against Florida State’s good-not-great defensive front. 

I could see Miami as a 1.5- or 2.5-point road favorite. But on the far side of three, this feels like too much advantage to give up for a Florida State team that’s playing at home and will be seeking redemption after last week’s upset loss in Charlottesville.

Beyond all the market analysis I’ve already mentioned, bettors should also consider the historical success of the underdog in this rivalry. The dog is 14-6 ATS with nine outright upsets since 2005.

Florida State vs Miami Prediction

I am predicting a Florida State +4.5 cover on Saturday night. 

Both the single-game market and the futures markets have overcorrected, in my opinion. With Miami now heavily favored to win the ACC, but Florida State having a home opportunity to deal the Hurricanes a head-to-head loss, FSU would be considered a value bet in the college football futures market, too.

Prediction: Florida State +4.5