- Florida St is a -7 point favorite vs. Virginia
- Florida State vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
Florida State (3-0) visit Scott Stadium to take on Virginia (3-1) on Sep. 26 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Florida St is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).
The Florida State vs. Virginia Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Florida State vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida State | -7 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -250 |
| Virginia | +7 -115 | 59.5 -115 | 200 |
Florida State vs Virginia Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida St and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida State vs Virginia Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 61.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida State Best Bets Today
- Florida State have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.44 Units / 32% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets Today
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.76 Units / 28% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida St is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Florida State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 440% ROI
- Florida State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Florida State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia iss 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Virginia is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.44% ROI
- Virginia is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Virginia is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Florida State have gained 40+ yards on 8 of their 41 receptions (20%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
Florida State WRs have averaged 21.0 yards per reception (482 yards/23 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per completion (797 yards/41 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s TEs has gained 161 yards on 13 receptions (12.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia has 344 receptions in 16 games (21.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 16.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 1,252 passing yards in 4 games (313.0 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 169.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Matchup Notes for Florida State vs. Virginia
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s TEs has gained 161 yards on 13 receptions (12.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia has 344 receptions in 16 games (21.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 16.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 1,252 passing yards in 4 games (313.0 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 169.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Florida State have gained 40+ yards on 8 of their 41 receptions (20%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
Florida State WRs have averaged 21.0 yards per reception (482 yards/23 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per completion (797 yards/41 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State have gained 40+ yards on 8 of their 41 receptions (20%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
Florida State WRs have averaged 21.0 yards per reception (482 yards/23 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per completion (797 yards/41 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s TEs has gained 161 yards on 13 receptions (12.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia has 344 receptions in 16 games (21.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 16.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 1,252 passing yards in 4 games (313.0 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 169.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State have gained 40+ yards on 8 of their 41 receptions (20%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
Florida State WRs have averaged 21.0 yards per reception (482 yards/23 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 19.4 yards per reception (797 yards/41 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0
Florida State have averaged 19.4 yards per completion (797 yards/41 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s TEs has gained 161 yards on 13 receptions (12.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia has 344 receptions in 16 games (21.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 16.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 1,252 passing yards in 4 games (313.0 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 169.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– T-most among FBS Teams
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