- Miami Florida is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Florida
- Florida vs. Miami Florida Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
Florida (1-2) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on Miami Florida (3-0) on Sep. 20 in Miami, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Miami Florida is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Florida vs. Miami Florida Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Florida vs. Miami Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida | +7.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | 260 |
| Miami Florida | -7.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -325 |
Florida vs Miami Florida Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Miami (FL) will win this game with 73.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Miami Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida vs Miami Florida Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida Best Bets Today
- Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+11.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- Florida have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Miami Florida Best Bets Today
- Miami has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- Miami has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- Miami has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Miami has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Miami has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Florida is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Miami Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Miami Florida iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Miami Florida is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Miami Florida is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Miami Florida is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Miami Florida
Florida was 8-2 (.800) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .628
Florida was 1-2 (.333) when in a one score game last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Florida is 3-5 (.375) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Florida is 9-3 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2024 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .650
Miami Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Florida
Miami (FL) was 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Miami (FL) was 11-2 (.846) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657
Miami (FL) was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668
Miami (FL) was 9-2 (.818) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Miami Florida
Miami (FL)’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.2% of 586 attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Miami (FL)’s RBs has rushed for 2,705 yards on 448 carries (6.0 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense have allowed just 3.7 YPC since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Miami (FL) has gained 5,440 yards on 402 receptions (13.5 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-12th-best among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among SEC defenses.
Florida’s WRs has gained 2,832 yards on 193 receptions (14.7 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 12.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida’s TEs has 62 receptions in 15 games (4.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among SEC TEs. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 18.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Florida have just 230.9 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Miami (FL)’s defense has allowed just 212.4 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida TEs were targeted 11 times last week– most among SEC Teams
Florida have thrown 6 interceptions this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses
Florida WRs have averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (515 yards/53 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.5
Florida WRs have averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (515 yards/53 catches) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Florida TEs had 9 receptions last week– most among SEC Teams
Miami Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Miami (FL) QBs had 76 completions for 20 or more yards last season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Miami (FL) RBs averaged 7.7 Yards per Carry (750 yards/97 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Miami (FL) Skill Players had 20 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Miami (FL) Skill Players had 20 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Miami (FL) averaged 348.2 Passing Yards per game (4,527/13) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 227.2
Florida Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Florida has sacked opposing QBs just once on 74 pass attempts this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.7
Florida has sacked opposing QBs just once on 74 pass attempts this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 13.9
Florida intercepted 3 of 325 attempts (108.3 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.5
Florida intercepted 3 of 325 attempts (108.3 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 35.7
Miami Florida Defensive Stats & Trends
Miami (FL) allowed opponents to catch just 20 of 53 passes (38% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Miami (FL) has forced 4 fumbles this season– T-3rd-most among Power Conference Teams
Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%
Miami (FL) allowed opponents to catch just 20 of 53 passes (38% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 59%
Miami (FL) has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (21 completions/55 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 58%
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