Florida vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:53 AM

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Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops reacts on the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Louisville in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Clubb)

(AP Photo/Michael Clubb)

Florida is a -3 point favorite vs. Kentucky
Florida vs. Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

Florida (3-5) visit Kroger Field to take on Kentucky (3-5) on Nov. 8 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Florida is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Florida vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Florida vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Florida	-3 -115	43.5 -110	-165
Kentucky	+3 -105	43.5 -110	140

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 60.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 55.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Florida Best Bets Today

Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Florida has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 1% ROI)

Kentucky Best Bets Today

Kentucky has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

Florida is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -57.4% ROI
Florida is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Florida is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky iss 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

Kentucky is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.91% ROI
Kentucky is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI
Kentucky is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 23.2 passes per game last season– lowest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31.0

Kentucky opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (18 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– T-best in the SEC; Average: 3.7

Kentucky did not allow any rushing touchdowns on 40 rushes last week– T-best in the SEC; Average: 29.5

Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 23.2 passes per game last season– lowest in the SEC; Average: 29.8

Kentucky has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 26 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Kentucky WRs caught just 114 of 220 passes(52% Reception Pct) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 61%

Kentucky’s RBs has averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch this season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kentucky WRs have been targeted 35 times on 1st down this season– fewest among SEC Teams

Kentucky’s TEs has gained 419 yards on 31 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. Florida’s defense has allowed 13.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Kentucky’s RBs has averaged just 6.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC since the 2024 season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Kentucky