Florida Atlantic vs Maryland Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 1

Maryland head coach Mike Locksley looks on during pre-game warm-ups before an NCAA college football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in College Park, Md. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
(AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
  • Maryland is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Florida Atlantic
  • Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
  • TV Channel: BTN

The Florida Atlantic (0-0) visit SECU Stadium to take on the Maryland (0-0) on Aug. 30 in College Park, MD. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Maryland is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).

The Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida Atlantic+14.5 -11060.5 -115+450
Maryland -14.5 -11060.5 -105-625

Florida Atlantic vs Maryland Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Maryland will win this game with 78.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida Atlantic and Maryland, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida Atlantic vs Maryland Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Maryland will cover the spread with 60.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Florida Atlantic has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Florida Atlantic have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Maryland has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Maryland has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Maryland have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.70 Units / 35% ROI)

Florida Atlantic: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

Florida Atlantic was winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .424

Florida Atlantic is 1-8 (.111) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .503

Florida Atlantic is winless (0-14) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .273

Florida Atlantic was winless (0-8) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .415

Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. Florida Atlantic

Maryland was 2-8 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .464

Maryland is 3-6 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .519

Maryland was 2-4 (.333) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .459

Maryland was 3-7 (.300) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Matchup Notes for Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland

Maryland’s WRs had 195.7 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed 184.3 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Maryland averaged just 10.4 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed 11.9 RAC to TEs last season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Maryland’s WRs averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed 13.1 RAC last season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s RBs averaged 11.0 yards after the catch last season — 12th-best among FBS RBs. Maryland’s defense allowed just 5.6 RAC to RBs last season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs had just 135.8 receiving yards per game last season — 32nd-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense allowed 241.3 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs had just 135.8 receiving yards per game last season — 32nd-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense allowed 194.2 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida Atlantic’s RBs averaged 11.0 yards after the catch last season — 12th-best among FBS RBs. Maryland’s defense allowed just 5.6 RAC to RBs last season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs had just 135.8 receiving yards per game last season — 32nd-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense allowed 241.3 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s WRs had just 135.8 receiving yards per game last season — 32nd-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense allowed 194.2 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic’s RBs averaged 11.0 yards after the catch last season — 12th-best among FBS RBs. Maryland’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Florida Atlantic WRs have just one touchdown on 54 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

Maryland Skill Players were targeted 151 times in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Maryland Skill Players were targeted 126 times on 3rd down in the 2024 season– most among Big Ten Teams

Maryland Skill Players averaged 26.2 receptions per game (314/12) in the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 19.5

Maryland Skill Players were targeted 151 times in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– most among Big Ten Teams

Maryland’s WRs had 195.7 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Florida Atlantic’s defense allowed 184.3 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Atlantic Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida Atlantic did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.7

Florida Atlantic did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.2

Florida Atlantic has sacked opposing QBs just once on 73 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Florida Atlantic allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (23 completions/58 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Florida Atlantic allowed opponents to catch just 23 of 58 passes (40% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 55%

Maryland Defensive Stats & Trends

Maryland tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 30 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%.

Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (10 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 62%

Maryland allowed first downs on 41% of pass attempts in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 22%

Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (10 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Maryland averaged a sack every 25.5 pass attempts (383 Pass Attempts/15 Sacks) in the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.6


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