College Football Expert Picks: Week 4 Predictions & Best Bets

Conference play is creeping into the college football odds market. A handful of conference games with big implications will be played this week, including Utah hosting Texas and Oklahoma hosting Auburn.

I’m not betting those marquee games, though. As is often the case, I feel the most interesting point spreads this weekend are deep in the bottom of the dumpster.

Florida State vs. Kent State Prediction

I know this is a weird thing to say, but here goes: Isn’t a point spread of only 45.5 points a little light here?

Florida State just hung 77 on East Texas A&M. The Seminoles have a bye and will enter this game very healthy. They’ll keep running the offense with second and third-string players in the second half, just to keep a maximum number of players happy in the age of the transfer portal.

Kent State is one of the worst teams in FBS that had a coaching change in the middle of its offseason. The Golden Flashes lost by 48 to Texas Tech in Week 2. They needed a miraculous kickoff return for a touchdown to beat FCS Merrimack in Week 1. 

Again, I know this is crazy, but shouldn’t Florida State be a bigger favorite here? Something more like -49.5?

Prediction: Florida State -45.5

UCF vs. North Carolina Prediction

North Carolina got its pants pulled down by TCU in Week 1, and everyone started laughing at Bill Belichick. 

That’s all well and good, but this line doesn’t make any sense. UCF has a rough roster, which was on display in its Week 1 slog with Jacksonville State. 

This line appears to be putting a lot of stock in UCF’s win over FCS North Carolina A&T, and I just don’t care about that. 

I think the spread and moneyline are both pretty interesting options here, but based on where the market is on Monday morning, I’d try to wait for the full +7. At the time of this writing, UCF was -6.5 (-120). 

Prediction: North Carolina +6.5

Georgia Tech vs. Temple Prediction

Georgia Tech is fresh off a win over Clemson that propelled the Yellow Jackets into the AP Top 25 and the ACC title picture. The Yellow Jackets are now second in the ACC conference table and climbing other futures boards, too.

That’s a prime spot for an overpriced favorite and a subsequent ATS letdown. 

Brent Key has been outstanding as a dog since taking over the Georgia Tech program, but his teams don’t play well to expectations as a big favorite. 

That means Georgia Tech is a questionable side this weekend, both from a wide historical lens and a narrow, spot-specific lens.

There’s also the Temple side to consider. KC Keeler is a lifer who grinds out program-building at nontraditional locations. Nobody is going to write to the CFP committee over blowout wins against UMass and FCS Howard, but it does demonstrate a certain competence that the Owls haven’t necessarily had recently. 

I think this coming relevance for Temple is completely unseen by the market at this point. But one potential signal that increased competitiveness is on the horizon for the Owls: PFF actually had Temple graded out at No. 27 through Week 3.

Nobody thinks Temple is a top 40 team or anything, but the play on the field has been far better than the market realizes. That makes it a lot easier to take the points and go against Georgia Tech in a classic fade spot. 

Prediction: Temple +23.5

Eastern Michigan vs. Louisiana Prediction

This line leapt off the screen at me. Louisiana was the preseason media pick to win the Sun Belt West, so you’d think the price would be a little heavier against a winless MAC team that lost to an FCS program two weeks ago.

But the Cajuns have struggled too, losing a Week 1 game to Rice and getting utterly blown out by Missouri. The scoreboard says they beat FCS McNeese 34-10, but it was a one-score game to start the fourth quarter.

The market is saying these two teams are closer to one another than the common perception might suggest. I’m choosing to lean into the smelly number here with an EMU prediction.

Prediction: Eastern Michigan +2.5

Mississippi State vs. Northern Illinois Prediction

I actually think Mississippi State is pretty competent this year with a good offense. But the market hasn’t caught onto that yet, which means the Bulldogs are available at -21.5 instead of something like -24.5 or -27.5. 

This is an easy call, and I’ll continue to look at Mississippi State every week until there’s a price correction. 

Prediction: Mississippi State -21.5

Florida International vs. Delaware Prediction

Like the UNC/UCF game, I just don’t think this game is priced anywhere close to correct.

FIU is not a good team, but the Panthers are 2-1 on the back of an FCS win and a rivalry win over Florida Atlantic. Now, they’re expected to win by margin against Delaware. 

The Blue Hens are an FBS newcomer this year, and so there is a certain amount of market skepticism automatically dealt in their direction. 

But Delaware is an increasingly well-funded football operation with a rich FCS history, and it’s well-positioned to find immediate success like other recent FBS newcomers at Jacksonville State and Sam Houston. It already scored an outright win against UConn last week – a team I’d peg as noticeably better than FIU.

I like the point spread, and I like the moneyline. 

Prediction: Delaware +6.5; Delaware +190

Louisiana Tech vs. Southern Miss Prediction

Regular readers of my analysis here on The Roar already know this, but I am a big Southern Miss fanboy this year. This team is essentially the reigning champion of the Sun Belt, thanks to all the talent that transferred over from Marshall in the offseason. 

Louisiana Tech has actually looked pretty good this year, relative to expectations. They gave LSU more of a game than expected and have handled business against lesser teams like FCS Southeastern Louisiana and New Mexico State. 

Still, I’m going to live or die this season on my Southern Miss predictions, so I’m going to stand tall yet again here with this number. I would price this as a pick ’em, which means there’s value on the Southern Miss side – especially on a key number like three. 

Prediction: Southern Miss +3; Southern Miss +130

College Football Week 4 Predictions

• Florida State -45.5
• North Carolina +6.5
• Temple +23.5
• Eastern Michigan +2.5
• Mississippi State -21.5
• Delaware +6.5
• Southern Miss +3