Duke vs. Virginia: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

The ACC will have a critical game on Saturday in its narrowing conference championship picture.

Both Duke and Virginia were upset by inferior teams last week. When they meet in Durham this weekend, the loser will be riding a two-game skid and all but eliminated from contention for next month’s ACC Championship Game.

Here’s how I view BetMGM’s college football odds market for this particular game.

Duke vs. Virginia Odds

• Point Spread: Duke -4
• Moneyline: Duke -200  |  Virginia +165
• Over/Under: 58.5

Duke vs. Virginia Preview

UVA quarterback Chandler Morris took a cheap shot last week against Wake Forest and left the game. The Cavaliers eventually suffered their first conference loss of the season, 16-9. 

It was just one of many bad ACC losses in Week 11, as the bottom of the conference jumped up and took a bite out of the top. Now, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, and Duke are all tied in the loss column.

That means this weekend’s game between the Cavaliers and Blue Devils will carry heavy implications for championship week. Duke opened the week as a 6.5-point favorite and was second in the conference futures table at +275. 

That number crashed to Duke -4 Wednesday morning, as news began to quietly leak that Morris would likely be available for Saturday. 

Morris might not be at full strength – the injury appears not to be a concussion, as some had assumed – but he’ll still be healthy enough to play, according to reports that came out later that day. 

But even with a healthy Morris, Virginia has the lesser of the two offenses in this game. Duke ranks No. 9 nationally in EPA per pass and 11th nationally in offensive success rate. 

Duke is susceptible to strong passing teams. The back end can’t cover, and the defense can’t get off the field on third down as a result. It ranks outside the top 100 in success rate for third and fourth downs.

But Virginia’s passing offense isn’t anything special. It ranks 88th in EPA per pass, while Morris himself ranks outside the top 40 in QBR. 

The fulcrum of this game will be Duke’s offense against Virginia’s defense. And while Virginia has been excellent in high leverage this year, the luck is already overdue to run out.

Duke vs. Virginia Prediction

I am predicting a Duke win and cover on Saturday.

Even if Morris was fully healthy, it’s telling that unranked Duke is a favorite over No. 19 Virginia in this game. 

That unranked favorite trend, which I often reference in my betting previews, is a more telling sign to me than anything else in this game. 

Prediction: Duke -4