Duke vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – ACC Championship

BetMGM Betting Dec 05, 2025, 10:39 AM

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Virginia coach Tony Elliott reacts to a call on the field during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Duke in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.

(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)

Virginia is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Duke
Duke vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

Duke (7-5) visit Bank of America Stadium to take on Virginia (10-2) on Dec. 6 in Charlotte, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Virginia is a betting favorite in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Duke vs. Virginia Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Duke vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Duke	+3.5 -115	57.5 -105	140
Virginia	-3.5 -105	57.5 -115	-165

Duke vs Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Duke vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Duke Best Bets Today

Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+6.10 Units / 74% ROI)
Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
Duke has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)

Virginia Best Bets Today

Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.11 Units / 71% ROI)
Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Duke is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.55 Units / -11.79% ROI).

Duke is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -10.9% ROI
Duke is 9-3 when betting the Over for +5.7 Units / 43.02% ROI
Duke is 3-9 when betting the Under for -6.85 Units / -52.09% ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia iss 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Virginia is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.45 Units / 11.61% ROI
Virginia is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.75 Units / -20.75% ROI
Virginia is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.41% ROI

Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Duke was 6-2 (.750) when in a one score game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Duke was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Duke was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Duke is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia WRs averaged a touchdown every 7.5 receptions (15 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia RBs have carried the ball 65 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Virginia’s RBs has averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch this season — T-8th-worst among FBS RBs. Duke’s defense has allowed 12.1 RAC this season — T-34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for Duke vs. Virginia